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Now that spring practice is over, we've refreshed our College Football Playoff and bowl projections ahead of the 2026 season. With a clearer picture of team rosters, incoming freshmen and how transfers fit within respective depth charts, we have a better sense (at least for now) of how things could look when postseason matchups are decided in early December.

This outlook reflects a sport in transition, where expanded playoff access and increased roster movement continue to fuel parity at the top. In fact, recent postseason trends have already shown a surge in first-time playoff participants, suggesting that unpredictability may again define the national title race in 2026.

Bowl, CFP projection process

Like all post-spring predictions, these serve less as definitive outcomes and more as a baseline for debate -- highlighting contenders, potential risers and the ever-present volatility that makes college football's postseason so compelling. We're sticking to the six-win minimum threshold for bowl eligibility here, but, like most years, there will likely be a five-win team (or two) needed to fill slots after coaching-change-related invitation declines or not enough programs meeting the entry requirements.

What we know about 2026-27 bowl season

  • Four first-round CFP games on various campuses will precede this year's CFP quarterfinal sites at the Fiesta, Cotton, Peach and Rose Bowl. The Orange and Sugar Bowl will host the CFP semifinals.
  • The Puerto Rico Bowl and Poinsettia Bowl are joining the lineup with the LA Bowl and GameAboveSports Bowl now defunct. Including the 12-team playoff, there are 82 bowl spots this fall. One source told CBS Sports that the Mountain West champion is expected to participate in the Poinsettia Bowl, which was last played in 2016.
  • Conference partners for games outside of the CFP have been extended for another season. Until the next CFP format is decided, no deals have been discussed about future tie-ins, considering the wealth of unknowns associated with total number of teams in the bracket.
  • With that tie-in disclaimer, the newly formed Pac-12 -- Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State -- will also include former Pac-12 teams that are in other Power Four conferences for bowl purposes. So, Arizona State, for instance, is considered a Pac-12 legacy and will not play in a Big 12-based bowl game next season.
  • North Dakota State and Sacramento State could be bowl-eligible during their FCS to FBS transition in Year 1 thanks to new legislation introduced from the Division I FBS Oversight Committee. If the proposal is adopted when the Division I Cabinet meets in June, the programs could play their way into postseason eligibility. North Dakota State will be a Mountain West member while Sacramento State will be in the MAC.

Onto our picks for the 82 total bowl teams and where they'll play this season (for now!) ...

A few points about a couple of these pre-CFP matchups involving several teams that will have a say in the selection committee's final rankings down the stretch this season:

  • Louisville's season opener against Ole Miss in Nashville is one of the most important of the campaign for both teams and certainly an underrated contest in Week 1. And while we hate to call the first game a must-win for either team, the schedule's considerably tougher the rest of the way for the Rebels and first-year coach Pete Golding. A victory for the Cardinals would be Jeff Brohm's arrival moment nationally despite winning 28 games since his arrival three seasons ago.
  • Can Mike Norvell extend his tenure at Florida State and get the Seminoles to bowl eligibility this season? That will largely depend on how his team fares in three Friday night games this fall against Louisville, Pitt and Florida. One of those matchups comes on Oct. 9, the week before the Seminoles travel to Miami, when his future may be teetering.
  • USC is one of the "first teams out" of our post-spring CFP projection simply due to a treacherous slate. No Big Ten team has a more difficult home schedule this season, one that includes Oregon, Washington and Ohio State.
  • Dabo Swinney vs. Brent Venables in Jacksonville? Organizers at the Gator Bowl would love to get the Sooners and Tigers on Dec. 27, pitting the two-time national champion against his former apprentice. Both coaches have their eyes on a CFP appearance -- not here, however.

College Football Playoff picks

First round

Date  LocationProjectionWinner faces

Dec. 18, 2026

Ohio Stadium
Columbus, Ohio

(9) LSU at (8) Ohio State
No. 1 seed

Dec. 19, 2026

Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, Texas

(10) SMU at (7) Texas Tech
No. 2 seed

Dec. 19, 2026

Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, Ind.

(11) Ole Miss at (6) Indiana
No. 3 seed

Dec. 19, 2026

Sanford Stadium
Athens, Ga.

(12) UNLV at (5) Georgia
No. 4 seed

On the heels of three straight national titles, the Big Ten will produce three of the top eight selections overall per this projection, but it's the SEC with four invites that leads the country in CFP representatives. For the second time since expansion, the ACC will put a pair of teams in the bracket with the projected, multi-loss Big 12 champion and UNLV rounding out the top 12. Texas Tech's projected seed goes from No. 5 to No. 7 in our post-spring update, given the availability question surrounding prized portal acquisition Brendan Sorsby at quarterback after his gambling admission.

11th-seed Ole Miss will play six games against opponents potentially ranked inside the top 25, beginning with Louisville in the opener and ending with Georgia and Oklahoma in November. This is the scenario in which a three-loss SEC team could get to the bracket as the "last team in," given the strength of schedule after Texas failed to do so last season.

Memphis was previously our early pick to come out of the Group of Six ranks this season, but we're bigger believers in UNLV exiting spring upon closer inspection and intel. Dan Mullen signed the No. 66 recruiting class nationally -- tops outside the Power Four -- and acquired 19 transfers this cycle, compared to 53 at Memphis under first-year coach Charles Huff. The two teams face off in the season opener at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Aug. 29, which could determine the early frontrunner to reach the CFP. Former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold, now on his third team in three years, will be UNLV's starting quarterback.

Quarterfinals 

DateGame / LocationProjection

Jan. 1, 2027

Peach Bowl
Atlanta

(1) Miami vs. (8/9) Winner

Dec. 30, 2026

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz.

(4) Notre Dame vs. (5/12) Winner

Jan. 1, 2027

Cotton Bowl
Dallas, Texas

(2) Texas vs. (7/10) Winner

Jan. 1, 2027

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.

(3) Oregon vs. (6/11) Winner

Our projected champions of the ACC, SEC and Big Ten garner three of the top four seeds along with Notre Dame, whose schedule is conducive to high-end success this season under Marcus Freeman. As long as the Fighting Irish finish within the top 12 of the selection committee's final vote, they have a spot earmarked in the bracket. 

After reloading in the transfer portal with several elite signings, including Duke quarterback Darian Mensah and former Missouri pass rusher Damon Wilson II, Miami could have its best team overall in the CFP era. The Hurricanes' showdown at Notre Dame on Nov. 7 is the only matchup in which Mario Cristobal's squad might be an underdog this fall.

Out of respect for Curt Cignetti's proven ability to evaluate, sign and develop, Indiana was the initial call to repeat as Big Ten champions and get back to the Rose Bowl. But the Ducks now have a slight edge coming out of spring. Ohio State, USC, Michigan and Washington are the others within the conference capable of becoming extreme noisemakers near the top of the polls, however.