Oregon vs. Iowa prediction, pick, spread: Ducks visit hostile Kinnick Stadium in pivotal Big Ten clash
Can Oregon avoid becoming the latest top-10 team to fall at Kinnick Stadium?
By
Cody Nagel
•
3 min read
No. 20 Iowa (6-2) has the opportunity to strengthen its College Football Playoff case Saturday when it hosts No. 9 Oregon (7-1) in a matchup that could define the Hawkeyes' season. Kinnick Stadium has been a proving ground for upsets over the past decade, with Iowa notching four home wins over AP top-10 opponents since 2016 -- tied for ninth-most in the FBS. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
It's a potential résumé-builder for Dan Lanning and the Ducks, who don't have a win over an FBS opponent currently above .500 this season. Their playoff profile needs substance, and this is the first of four chances in November to add it. While those upcoming opportunities give Oregon a bit of breathing room in the playoff chase, Iowa finds itself in must-win mode the rest of the regular season. With Big Ten leaders Indiana and Ohio State setting the pace, avoiding a second conference loss is crucial should either slip up down the stretch.
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The road trip is also another step in its Big Ten initiation, as Oregon makes its first visit to Iowa City since 1989. Lanning was just three years old at the time, while current Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz was overseeing the Hawkeyes' offensive line.
Where to watch Oregon vs. Iowa live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 8 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kinnick Stadium -- Iowa City, Iowa
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium
Follow along for LIVE UPDATES as the Ducks and Hawkeyes face off in a pivotal Big Ten clash.
Oregon vs. Iowa: Need to know
Limiting explosives: No defenses in the Power Four are better at keeping everything in front of them than Iowa and Oregon. The Ducks own an FBS-best 5.92% defensive explosive play rate and the Hawkeyes close behind at third nationally (6.61%) -- a fitting strength for two teams built on defense-first principles.
Points from anywhere: Iowa and Oregon have a combined seven non-offensive touchdowns this season. The Hawkeyes have produced three special teams scores and a pick-six, while the Ducks have returned three of their nine interceptions for touchdowns, showcasing two of the nation's most opportunistic units.
Common ground: If common opponents offer any insight, Oregon holds a narrow edge. The Ducks are plus-56 combined against Rutgers, Indiana, Wisconsin and Penn State, compared to Iowa's plus-43. Both teams lost at home to Indiana but handled the other three.
Oregon missing key weapon: Ducks' standout freshman receiver Dakorien Moore is expected to miss Saturday's game against the Hawkeyes, CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reports. The former five-star prospect was one of Oregon's prize recruits from the 2025 class and he's lived up to his hefty billing. He leads the team with 28 catches and 443 yards receiving. The Ducks will have to find a way to replace his production against a stingy Iowa defense.
Oregon vs. Iowa prediction, picks
There are similarities between these two defenses, but the offenses couldn't be more different. Iowa remains a run-heavy operation with few explosive plays (9.9%, eighth-worst among Power Four teams), while Oregon features one of the nation's top young quarterbacks in sophomore Dante Moore and produces a far higher big-play rate (16.9%, fourth-best in the FBS).
The Ducks have also proven they can handle hostile road environments, including an overtime win at Penn State before the Nittany Lions' late-season collapse. What might appear on paper to be a difficult matchup for Oregon isn't really that at all -- Iowa's conservative approach actually plays into the Ducks' strengths. Pick: Oregon -6.5
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