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Just two teams remain in the AFC, and by the time we're through with Sunday's conference championship, only one will have its ticket punched for Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX. The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos will duke it out to represent the conference in the Super Bowl when they clash at Mile High this weekend. 

This AFC title game will be the sixth time that these franchises have squared off in the postseason. The Broncos come into this matchup with history on their side, owning a 4-1 record in those prior contests. New England is 0-4 on the road at Denver in the playoffs all-time, which is tied for the worst road record in any head-to-head matchup in NFL playoff history. 

While those prior trends favor Denver, their view of this game is not so kind on the health front. In the final moments of their overtime win over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, starting quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury. That now forces the Broncos to turn to backup Jarrett Stidham, who'll be making his first NFL start since Week 18 of the 2023 season. That'll be a tough hurdle to overcome, particularly against this Patriots team that has seen its defense emerge this postseason and also boasts an MVP-caliber quarterback in Drake Maye. 

So, who comes out on top in this matchup? That's the question we posed to our staff here at CBS Sports. While you may imagine that New England has the advantage due to the Nix injury, it was not a clean sweep in favor of the Patriots. Check out who our staff has winning the AFC Championship. 

Where to watch Patriots vs. Broncos live

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 25 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
  • TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
  • Odds: Patriots -5.5, O/U 42.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pete Prisco: I know the Broncos are playing Jarett Stidham for the injured Bo Nix, but Sean Payton will have a plan to make it work and the defense will limit Drake Maye. Broncos to the Super Bowl. Broncos 23, Patriots 21 

Tyler Sullivan: The air was taken out of the balloon with this matchup after Bo Nix went down with an ankle injury. Jarrett Stidham has a nice revenge narrative set up for himself as he faces the team that drafted him, but New England's defense should engulf him. So long as Drake Maye protects the football, New England should be back in the Super Bowl. Patriots 24, Broncos 17

John Breech: Drake Maye struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, and now, he has to once again play one of the best defenses in the NFL, except this time, he has to go on the road. Maye has taken a beating this postseason (he's been sacked 10 times in two games) and it could get worse in Denver where he'll be facing a Broncos defense that recorded the FIFTH-MOST sacks in a single season in NFL history. I have no idea how the Patriots offensive line is going to stop the Broncos' pass-rush. I think Denver will keep this closer than most people are expecting, but New England steals the win. Patriots 20, Broncos 17.

Jordan Dajani: The football gods love Mike Vrabel. His Patriots got to play the easiest strength of schedule since 1999, then took on a hapless Chargers team in the wild-card round followed by the turnover addict C.J. Stroud in the divisional round. Who awaits New England in the conference championship? Jarrett Stidham. Patriots 23, Broncos 17 .

Garrett Podell: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye led the NFL in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, passer rating, completion percentage over expected and expected points added (EPA) per dropback in 2025 while fill-in Denver Broncos starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham hasn't thrown a pass all season. Patriots 27, Broncos 13.

Bryan DeArdo: Picking the Patriots feels like a cop out given Bo Nix's injury. But even if Nix was playing, the Patriots would likely still be my pick because of their running game, which should help Drake Maye conquer Denver's mighty defense. Patriots 20, Broncos 10.

J.P. Acosta: I think the Broncos have the ability defensively to make the Pats' life difficult on the offensive side of the ball, but a resurgent Patriots' defense takes advantage of a Nix-less Broncos offense and goes to the Super Bowl. Patriots 21, Broncos 17.

Zach Pereles: The Bo Nix injury is a huge bummer not only for the Broncos, but for any neutral observer; we want to see teams at as close to full strength as possible this late in the season. Still, don't expect this to become some blowout, considering the Broncos have the pass rush to disrupt Drake Maye (who's taken 10 sacks in two postseason games), and Jarrett Stidham likely won't throw four interceptions like C.J. Stroud did. Patriots 20, Broncos 17.

Joel Corry:  Losing Bo Nix is too much for the Broncos to overcome. Patriots 27, Broncos 17.

Kyle Stackpole: Jarrett Stidham was one of Sean Payton's first free agent signings after he arrived in Denver in 2023, choosing to play for Payton over other options. He has known Davis Webb -- the team's offensive pass game coordinator and quarterbacks coach -- since he was a teenager. Does any of this mean he'll play well enough to lift Denver to the Super Bowl? No. But wouldn't it be an amazing story if he did? Broncos 24, Patriots 21

Mike Renner: The Patriots look poised to slop their way to the Super Bowl. Both offensive lines look like they'll be overmatched in this one, but Drake Maye has proven that won't stop him from still making plays. Patriots 13, Broncos 10.

Jared Dubin: Again, I'm rolling with the better quarterback here in Drake Maye. The Broncos' defense is really good and could keep them in the game, but has shown enough leaks in recent weeks that I'm not comfortable picking them to win it outright given their quarterback situation. Patriots 21, Broncos 10