Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship preview: These X factors could determine who advances to Super Bowl LX

The AFC Championship is on the line, as is a trip to Super Bowl LX, when the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos go toe-to-toe at Mile High. These were the top two seeds in the conference at the end of the regular season, so it's fitting to see them as the last clubs standing. 

However, the Broncos will look remarkably different in this matchup than they have throughout the year, particularly in the aftermath of Bo Nix suffering a season-ending ankle injury in the final moments of Denver's overtime win against the Bills last weekend. That now thrusts backup Jarrett Stidham into the starting spot as the Broncos hope he'll help propel them to their first trip to the Super Bowl since reaching Super Bowl 50. 

As for the Patriots, they come into the conference title game thanks in large part to some dominant play defensively this postseason, most notably forcing five turnovers (four interceptions coming from C.J. Stroud) against the Texans last weekend. They are in the midst of a historic turnaround following a 4-13 campaign a season ago. Under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, New England is now 16-3 (including playoffs), which is tied for the 1998-99 Rams (+12) for the largest year-over-year win total increase (including playoffs) in NFL history. On top of Vrabel's arrival, that ascent has been spearheaded by Drake Maye, catapulting him into an MVP candidate in his second season. Maye is now looking to become the second-youngest QB to start in a Super Bowl, only looking up to Dan Marino. 

These franchises are no strangers to seeing one another in the playoffs. This will be the sixth time they've squared off in the postseason, with Denver holding a 4-1 edge in those prior matchups. New England is also 0-4 on the road in Denver in the playoffs, so they'll need to achieve what no other Patriots team has achieved before to inch one step closer to a championship. 

As we gear up for this AFC Championship, let's highlight a key X factor for each team that could prove to be the difference in them advancing or going home. 

Where to watch Broncos vs. Patriots live

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 25 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Odds: Patriots -5.5, O/U 42.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Patriots' X factor: Drake Maye needs to protect the football 

What's gone under the radar over New England's playoff run has been Drake Maye being a little too loose with the football. During the Patriots' first two postseason matchups, Maye has six fumbles (three lost) and two interceptions. One of those interceptions was a heave to the end zone in the final seconds of the first half against Houston, so we can cast that one off to the side. That said, that's still far too many turnovers if you're trying to win a championship. 

To this point, the Patriots haven't really been burned by Maye giving the ball to the opposition, thanks to their dominant play defensively. Of those four true turnovers, New England opponents have scored just seven points. While they have held up until this point, Maye can't bank on the defense to bail him out. Turning the ball over and giving his defense short fields to work with is a recipe for a team like the Broncos -- who are starting a backup quarterback in this game -- to smell blood in the water and eye an upset. 

Now this isn't all on Maye. The second-year quarterback has held onto the ball a bit too long at times, but he's also been under siege due to some poor play, particularly on the left side of the offensive line. This postseason, Maye has been sacked 10 times, which is the most among all quarterbacks. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell has accounted for three of those sacks, which is a departure from his strong play during the regular season. 

Campbell struggled against Chargers pass rusher Odafe Oweh over Wild Card Weekend, along with Will Anderson Jr. in the divisional round, and it won't get any easier in the AFC Championship. Now, Campbell and the rest of the Patriots offensive line will have to square up against a Broncos pass rush that just set a franchise record 71 sacks (and counting) on the season. Most notably, Campbell will have to deal with Denver pass rusher Nik Bonitto, who had the third-highest pressure rate (19.1%) in the league this season (min. 400 rushes). 

If New England can hold up in protection and Maye plays a clean game, there is a clear avenue to victory. If those turnovers and leakiness on the left side persist, it's anyone's ballgame, no matter who is under center for Denver. 

Broncos' X factor: Don't ask Jarrett Stidham to do too much

Let's just be blunt. The Broncos are in a difficult position. No team wants to have to turn to a backup quarterback for a game with stakes as big as the AFC Championship, but here they are. With Nix sidelined, Jarrett Stidham will start for Denver. When he does, it'll mark the first time he's started a meaningful game since Week 18 of the 2023 season, which is also the last time he attempted a pass in the NFL.  Moreover, it'll be just his fifth-ever start in the NFL and the first taste of playoff action in his career.

Stidham will be the seventh quarterback to make his first start of the season in the playoffs. Only one of the previous six was able to win a game (Frank Reich in 1992). That's not to say that Stidham simply can't lead the Broncos to an AFC title and a trip to the Super Bowl, but it'll have to be under specific circumstances. 

Sean Payton is now tasked with managing Stidham and not letting the game get too out of hand so that the backup turned starter will need to throw his team back into it, which would likely turn into a disaster.

First off, Denver will need to get some semblance of a running game going to take pressure off Stidham. The Broncos could potentially get a boost in that regard with a return of J.K. Dobbins, who has been sidelined since Week 10 due to a foot injury. Denver did open up his practice window this week and reportedly has a chance to play in the AFC Championship. If he does, that could greatly help a Denver running game that is bottom 10 in rushing yards per game and yards per rush since he went down. Before the injury, Dobbins was averaging a career-high 77.2 rushing yards per game. 

On top of a possible Dobbins return to improve the ground attack, Denver's offensive line will need to continue holding up in pass protection. The unit is coming off a regular season where they allowed just 23 sacks (tied for the fewest in the NFL). A clean pocket will do wonders for Stidham, particularly early as he gets into a rhythm.  

To further help in pass protection, Payton would be wise to call plays that see Stidham make quick, single-read throws, whether it be screens, slants, or hitches. That'll help with tempo and not have him deal with New England's emerging pass rush. 

On the defensive side of things, they'll need to keep Drake Maye and the Patriots offense in check by pressuring him as we highlighted above. Essentially, Payton and the Broncos should look to bring this game to a screeching halt and turn it into a rock fight. If they can, Stidham won't be asked to throw them to the Super Bowl.