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After a week off, the NASCAR Cup Series resumes on Sunday with the 2026 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway with the green flag dropping at 3 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch is one of the most accomplished drivers in NASCAR history and even one month shy of his 41st birthday, the 63-time Cup Series winner continues to prove he has the skill to compete. Busch enters Sunday with a chance at history as a five-time winner of the Food City 500, and a 2026 Food City 500 victory would tie him with Rusty Wallace for the most all-time for the race. Given Busch's current price of +4000 in the latest 2026 Food City 500 odds, the SportsLine computer model likes the value of Busch accomplishing this, making Busch one of its top NASCAR longshot best bets to win NASCAR at Bristol. 

The model likes other longshots in the 2026 Food City 500 driver pool as well, seeing value in Joey Logano and Ross Chastain when online sports betting and making 2026 Food City 500 bets at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday. For NASCAR betting, Logano is listed at +2200 odds and Chastain has +4500 odds for 2026 Food City 500 betting. Before making any 2026 Food City 500 picks or NASCAR at Bristol predictions, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to NASCAR at Bristol. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

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Top 2026 Food City 500 longshot picks

  • Joey Logano (+2200)
  • Ross Chastain (+4500)
  • Kyle Busch (+4000)

Joey Logano (+2200)

Logano is coming off a third-place finish at the Cook Out 400 on March 29th in the last Cup Series race after also starting the season with a third-place result at the Daytona 500. Logano is a three-time Cup Series champion, including winning in 2022 and 2024. He finished fifth in his last start at Bristol Motor Speedway. Logano has 10 Cup Series victories over the previous four seasons, and at 22-1 odds to capture his first victory of the year, the model sees nice value in the proven winner for Sunday NASCAR at Bristol bets. 

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Ross Chastain (+4500)

He finished third at Atlanta in the second race of the 2026 Cup Series season, and although that was his only top-five finish this season, he's placed in the top 20 in three straight races. He's finished in the top 10 in two of his last three races at Bristol Motor Speedway, and Chastain has the eighth-best average finish (12.8) of drivers who ran multiple races in Bristol since the start of 2024. He recorded at least one victory in each of his last four NASCAR Cup Series seasons. Chastain has significantly longer odds than many of the drivers he shares similar success with at Bristol Motor Speedway, which has the model liking the value to include Chastain in NASCAR longshot picks on Sunday.

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Kyle Busch (+4000)

Busch leads all active drivers with 63 NASCAR Cup Series wins, with five of those victories coming in the Food City 500. Only Rusty Wallace (six) has more all-time wins than Busch in this race. Busch has won eight NASCAR at Bristol events overall, double the next highest (Denny Hamlin, four). Three of those wins came in his last 15 starts at Bristol, with two runner-up results as well. His 14 all-time top-five results are also the most at Bristol. The soon-to-be 41-year-old has yet to crack the top 10 this season, but this speedway could be the place to change that. Given his history in Bristol, +4000 odds seem like too good a number to pass up on. He's also +600 to finish in the top five, which could be an intriguing play for NASCAR prop betting. 

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Want more picks for the 2026 Food City 500?

You've seen the SportsLine model's 2026 Food City 500 longshot picks for this weekend. Now, see the model's full leaderboard for NASCAR at Bristol. You can only see the model's picks here.