The first round of the 2026 MLB Draft is Saturday, and I'm extremely excited about it as a Chicago White Sox fan because the team is rising big time as it is. Now they will pick No. 1 overall for the first time since selecting future Hall of Famer Harold Baines out of a Maryland high school in 1997. A couple of months ago, there seemed to be a consensus on who the Pale Hose would take, but now it's a three-man race, so let's break it down with FanDuel odds.
Commissioner Rob Manfred should announce the choice around 1:10 p.m. ET Saturday from Philadelphia, although this isn't like the NFL or NBA Draft where all the top prospects are in attendance and it's some mega-TV event. The MLB Draft is quite tame, because obviously most casual baseball fans don't know who these guys are, and even the best of the best of the class likely won't help the big-league club until at least next season. Even that is fast for most. Reportedly, no draft-eligible players will be even in attendance, but the telecast (NBC and MLB Network) will cut to a live feed from a draft party or just show highlights and analysis.
The White Sox had the best chance of winning last December's lottery at 27.7%, and perhaps the presence of Baines at the draw in Orlando was the lucky charm. Immediately after winning the lottery, the presumption was that Chicago would take UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky and he remains the consensus No. 1 overall prospect but is now the +115 second-favorite at FanDuel to be the choice and is the No. 2 prospect via MLB.com.
This past season for the Bruins, Cholowsky became only the third player in history to win Big Ten Player of the Year in back-to-back campaigns. He slashed .320/.452/.636 with a team-best 21 homers along with 60 RBI and 73 runs scored. He struck out just 36 times in 231 at-bats. Cholowsky looks to join Bill Almon (1974) and Dansby Swanson (2015) as the third college shortstop drafted first overall in the Common Draft Era (since 1965). Swanson and Alex Bregman (second) in 2015 were the last shortstops to even be chosen in the top three.
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The last UCLA players chosen in the top three were pitchers Gerrit Cole (first) and Trevor Bauer (third) in 2011. At age 21, Cholowsky could easily help the Pale Hose as soon as the 2027 season, so why wouldn't they take him? Finances. Teams have a certain draft pool, so if they can negotiate a lower slot price for a given prospect, that allows the team to spend more money on later picks and perhaps keep those guys from attending college.
The betting favorite to be the Chicago choice is Texas high school shortstop Grady Emerson (+105), now the top prospect at MLB.com by a nose. Emerson was the 2026 National Gatorade Player of the Year and named a semifinalist for the 2026 Golden Spikes Award â I honestly wasn't even aware high-schoolers were eligible for that.
The only other high-schooler in the past 48 years to be named a semifinalist was Bobby Witt Jr. in 2019 (also a Dallas/Fort Worth-area shortstop). He was the No. 2 overall pick in that year's draft and has become a superstar. Emerson is thought to have a higher ceiling than Cholowsky but a lower floor, and at age 18 Emerson obviously is much further away from the Show.
The last option to be the top pick is Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey at +320, and I don't think he's a realistic option as the Sox are deep in young catchers. But you also don't draft for position in MLB, just take the best player as it's such a crapshoot. Lackey, the 2026 Johnny Bench Award winner, also played some third base and has some wheels (33 steals over past two seasons) to go with his power (20 HR this past season).
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I believe the White Sox's choice is Cholowsky because he's more of a safe bet; he was a considered likely to go in one of the first two rounds of the 2023 draft -- the White Sox were linked to him â but decided to honor his commitment to UCLA. Cholowsky was the highest-ranked player on MLB Pipeline's Draft board who wasn't picked that year. Again, he would likely help a rising franchise much sooner than Emerson.
Tampa Bay picks second, and interestingly the favorite there is Lackey at +135 over either Emerson (+200) or Cholowsky (+310); interesting as nearly all scouts have Lackey on a slightly lower tier. I will say that the Rays pinch pennies better than anyone, so perhaps Lackey would be cheaper.
Minnesota has the No. 3 selection and the favorite is also Lackey at +125. The Twins in a way have the easiest call if they stick to the overall prospect board as they take whichever of that top-rated trio is still left. And I'd guess that will be Lackey. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
