2026 Pennzoil 400 longshot picks, odds, predictions, NASCAR bets: Model backs Kyle Busch in Las Vegas

The NASCAR Cup Series season is only a month old, but Tyler Reddick has already opened up a 60-point lead in the standings after winning each of the first three races. However, Ryan Blaney ended Reddick's winning streak last week in Phoenix and he'll hope to carry that momentum into the 2026 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday. Both Toyota and Ford managed wins in Las Vegas last season with Denny Hamlin winning in the fall and Josh Berry winning the Pennzoil 400.

The green flag is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET on Sunday and the latest 2026 Pennzoil 400 odds list Kyle Larson, a three-time Cup winner in Las Vegas, as the +500 favorite. Hamlin is priced at +700 in the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds while Reddick and Blaney are both +900 and Berry is a +4000 longshot to repeat as the Pennzoil 400 winner. Before making any 2026 Pennzoil 400 picks or NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to NASCAR at Phoenix. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

Top 2026 Pennzoil 400 longshot picks

• Joey Logano (+1400)
• Chase Elliott (+1800)
• Kyle Busch (+6000)

Joey Logano (+1400)

Logano is a four-time winner in Las Vegas during his NASCAR Cup Series career and two of those wins have come since 2022 when NASCAR introduced its Next-Gen model. He's piled up 37 career victories in a Cup car and is a three-time series champion, yet he only has the ninth-shortest odds on the board this week. Logano has qualified third or better in three of his four starts this season and has led at least nine laps in every race. Last week he won the pole in Phoenix and led 76 laps before a crash led to a 31st-place finish so he'll be looking to bounce back in a big way on Sunday and the model sees him as a great value.

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Chase Elliott (+1800)

The pricing on Elliott varies pretty widely, with some books pricing him as low as +1100, so make sure you're shopping around for the best price here. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion recorded 21 victories before his 30th birthday, but he's still searching for his first career victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Elliott is currently fourth in the NASCAR standings after recording three top-11 finishes in the first month of the season and he should be primed to contend for the win again on Sunday.

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Kyle Busch (+6000)

With 63 wins in the NASCAR Cup Series, 102 wins in the NASCAR O'Reilly Autoparts Series and 68 wins in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, Busch is an all-time great, but he hasn't been to victory lane in a Cup car since 2023. He'll look to end a career-long 97-race winless streak on Sunday at LVMS, where he's recorded 12 top-five finishes in 29 career starts. With this price listed as low as +3000 at some books, head to BetMGM for the best price if you think Busch can win as a longshot this weekend.

Click here to bet on Busch with the latest BetMGM bonus code, where new users receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

Want more picks for the 2026 Pennzoil 400?

You've seen the SportsLine model's 2026 Pennzoil 400 longshot picks for this weekend. Now, see the model's full leaderboard for NASCAR at Las Vegas. You can only see the model's picks here.

2026 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds, lineup

See full NASCAR Pennzoil 400 picks at SportsLine

(Odds from FanDuel, subject to change)
Kyle Larson +450
Christopher Bell +550
Tyler Reddick +750
Denny Hamlin +750
Ryan Blaney +800
William Byron +850
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Chase Elliott +1600
Ross Chastain +2000
Bubba Wallace +2000
Carson Hocevar +2500
Ty Gibbs +3300
Ryan Preece +4000
Chris Buescher +4000
Josh Berry +5000
Kyle Busch +5000
Austin Cindric +6000
Justin Allgaier +6000
Brad Keselowski +7500
Connor Zilisch +7500
Daniel Suarez +7500
Erik Jones +15000
Michael McDowell +20000
AJ Allmendinger +20000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Austin Dillon +30000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +35000
Noah Gragson +35000
Zane Smith +40000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Riley Herbst +100000
Ty Dillon +100000
Cole Custer +150000
Cody Ware +200000