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Tyler Reddick's historic season continues into the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 on Sunday after becoming the first driver in NASCAR Cup Series history to win the first three races of the year. The 30-year-old has already matched his career high for wins in a season, and despite his historic start, Reddick is outside the top five favorites in the latest 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds. The SportsLine computer model sees this as an opportunity to jump on him from the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 driver pool, projecting value in backing Reddick to win his fourth straight race this season at the Straight Talk Wireless 500 2026 at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday. 

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday for this 2026 NASCAR at Phoenix run. As well as seeing value in Reddick, who is listed at 18-1 in the latest 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds, the model projects value in Ross Chastain (22-1) and Kyle Busch (55-1) for 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 bets. Busch has won two of his last 15 races at Phoenix Raceway, with five top-five finishes over that span. Before making any 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 picks or NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to NASCAR at Phoenix. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

Top 2026 Straight Talk Wireless longshot picks

  • Tyler Reddick (+1800)
  • Ross Chastain (+2200)
  • Kyle Busch (+5500)

Tyler Reddick (+1800)

It's rare to imagine a driver who has won three straight races would ever reach longshot territory, but with no fewer than five drivers having shorter odds than Reddick despite the 30-year-old winning each of the first three races of the NASCAR Cup Series season, he's approaching longshot status. Reddick is the first driver to win the first three races of the NASCAR season, but he's been an established winner in other years as well. Before this season, Reddick won multiple Cup Series races in three of the last four seasons, totaling eight wins during that span. He's obviously seeing the courses as well as any driver has during a three-week stretch heading to Phoenix Raceway, where he's finished in the top three in two of his last seven starts. He also has two top-10 results over his last four NASCAR at Phoenix events, providing nice value at double-digit odds given his start to the season. BetMGM offers Reddick at +1800, while the majority of betting apps have him at or closer to +1100 odds, making BetMGM the place to make this 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 bet.

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Ross Chastain (+2200)

Chastain was off to a great start last week, winning the first stage before losing a tire following a pit stop on lap 75, which resulted in two of his crew members being suspended for the next two races. He could have been on his way to a second straight top-five finish after placing third at the Autotrader 400 on Feb. 22. Chastain has won at least one race in each of the last four NASCAR Cup Series seasons, and he finished 10th in the final NASCAR Cup Series standings last year. The 33-year-old won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway in 2023, and he has two top-three finishes over his last eight NASCAR at Phoenix starts. FanDuel offers the best odds at 22-1, while other betting apps list him at 20-1 odds or lower.

Click here to bet on Chastain with the latest FanDuel promo code, which gives new users $100 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins:

Kyle Busch (+5500)

Busch leads all active drivers with 63 NASCAR Cup Series wins, and Phoenix Raceway has been one of his most dominant tracks over his elite career. Busch has three career NASCAR at Phoenix wins, two coming in his most recent 15 races at the track. He has five top-five finishes over that span, including finishing fifth at last year's championship race at the track. He has 10 top-10 finishes over his last 15 NASCAR at Phoenix starts. Expanded over his last 21 starts, Busch has 16 top-10 finishes and 10 top-five results. Given his vast experience and consistent finishes toward the top at Phoenix Raceway, the model sees strong value in him at 55-1 odds to win Sunday.

Click here to bet on Busch with the latest FanDuel promo code, which gives new users $100 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins:

Want more picks for the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500?

You've seen the SportsLine model's 2026 Straight Talk Wireless longshot picks for this weekend. Now, see the model's full leaderboard for NASCAR at Phoenix. You can only see the model's picks here.