AFC Championship Game betting preview: Odds, picks for Patriots-Broncos on Sunday, Jan. 25
Here's everything for bettors to know about the AFC title game between the Patriots and Broncos
Just four teams remain in the NFL playoffs as we've reached Conference Championship Weekend, and the AFC title game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos sure got shaken up on Saturday. Denver will be without starting quarterback Bo Nix for the rest of the postseason after he broke a bone in his ankle in the Broncos' overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. Journeyman backup Jarrett Stidham will lead the Broncos against the team that drafted him, the Patriots, on Sunday in Denver with a Super Bowl berth at stake. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET and Patriots vs. Broncos will air on CBS and stream on Paramount+. Here, we break down everything bettors need to know about the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos. All NFL betting lines and odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots at Broncos (3 p.m. ET)
- Spread: Patriots -5.5
- Total: 41.5
The Broncos looked like a team of destiny, securing the No. 1 seed behind an elite defense and efficient offense and knocking off Josh Allen and the Bills in an entertaining overtime classic. Denver was set to be favored against either the Patriots or Houston Texans, but that came to a halt when news of Nix's ankle injury came to light. Now, New England is a sizable 5.5-point favorite on the road in this AFC title game. The winner will then face the winner of the Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl in Santa Clara, Calif.
The Patriots have shaken off questions about an easy regular-season schedule with decisive postseason victories over the Los Angeles Chargers and Texans thanks in large part to the team's defense. The Pats have allowed just 19 points across those two victories and secured five takeaways on Sunday against Houston. The Broncos don't turn the ball over much on offense, but that's also been with Nix at the helm. Stidham is a veteran, having entered the league in 2019, but he has just four career starts and an 8-8 TD-INT ratio. Denver head coach and play caller Sean Payton will certainly look to lean on the rushing attack with rookie RJ Harvey as well as the team's screen game in order to help Stidham out. This has the makings of a low-scoring affair with Denver third in the NFL in scoring defense and New England right behind at fourth, though the Patriots were second in scoring offense while the Broncos were 14th.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, sees value in backing an underdog Broncos team at home as they win in 46% of simulations at plus odds, good for an 'A'-graded pick. New England has been great against the spread this year, going 14-5 against the number while Denver is 8-10 ATS. The Patriots are 12-7 to the Over and Denver is 10-8 to the Under. The Patriots have won and covered in five straight games, and six of their last seven games have finished Over. The Broncos have covered in three of their last five games, and five of their last seven games have finished Over.
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