After historic 83-point game, what should NBA bettors expect for Bam Adebayo's encore vs. Bucks?
The Heat's Bam Adebayo scored 83 points last time out, the second most ever in an NBA game. It's fair to say he won't get close to that against Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Miami Heat at 7:30 ET on Thursday, certainly not the most attractive NBA matchup on Thursday's nine-game slate -- the best one would be Celtics at Thunder in a possible Finals matchup. But suddenly this matchup in Miami has intrigue simply to see what Heat big man Bam Adebayo does for an encore after his epic 83-point game Tuesday.
Entering Tuesday, if you had given me 70 chances to guess the next NBA player to score at least 70 points in a game this season, I wouldn't have chosen Adebayo. He wouldn't even have been my top Heat choice, slotting in behind guards Norman Powell (22.5 PPG) or Tyler Herro (22.2 PPG), the team's two leading scorers.
But the 6-foot-9 Adebayo, best known for his defensive prowess as a five-time member of the NBA's All-Defensive Team and likely to make a sixth this year, hung those 83 points in Miami's 150-129 win over atrocious Washington -- he was set at over/under 24.5 points (high for him) for the game. Prior to that, the four-time All-Star's previous career high was 41. Shoot, his two previous career high totals combined for 79 points. Adebayo had 43 in the first half alone Tuesday (a Heat record). There have been 11 games this season in which a team failed to score at least 83 points.
In 42 minutes, he was 20-for-43 from the field (the first player in NBA history to score at least 70 points while making less than 50% of his shots), 7-for-22 from deep (a career high in makes) and 36-for-43 from the charity stripe. He set league records for free throws made and attempted in a game. The previous Heat record was 61 points by LeBron James vs. Charlotte (March 3, 2014).
In the first quarter alone, Adebayo had 31 points, the fifth-highest scoring quarter by a player in the NBA's play-by-play era that began in the 1996-97 season. Adebayo was given free reign to shoot because Heat rotation regulars Herro, Powell, Kel'el Ware and Andrew Wiggins were all out due to injuries.
Adebayo's career-high scoring average for a season is 20.4 points, and he's averaging 20.0 even after that historic outing. He became the third player to reach 80 points. Wilt Chamberlain's 100-point game on March 2, 1962, is untouchable. Kobe Bryant had held the No. 2 mark of 81 points, set on Jan. 22, 2006. Adebayo joined Chamberlain as the only players in NBA history with 20 made field goals and 25 made free throws in a game.
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"Could anybody? No," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said to the local media when asked if he could have seen something like this coming for Adebayo. "Look at the company that he's with right now. The absolute greats of the game, the scoring greats of the game. It's an absolute credit to his relentless will and work ethic. He's willed himself and worked himself into being a premier offensive talent in this league. He's a unique offensive player, so you can't put him in a conventional box."
Spoelstra admitted he left Adebayo in longer than normal -- "I didn't dare even think about taking him out" -- as even with the Heat leading by as many as 28 points, Adebayo played almost the entire second half before being pulled with 1:08 left.
Adebayo became the 11th different player in NBA history to score at least 70 points in a game and was the first to reach at least 60 this season. Some sportsbooks will occasionally post odds on which player will be the next to score 60 in an NBA game, and Luka Doncic is always favored. There have been 12 players to reach 50 this season. The single-season mark is 14, done in both 2021-22 and 2022-23.
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So what should we expect from Adebayo on Thursday? I think he might somewhat defer to his teammates after they kept feeding him Tuesday. For a point of reference, Chamberlain scored 58 points in his first game post-100, and Kobe had 30 in his first after 81. The Bucks are middle-of-the-pack defensively, allowing 116.0 points per game. The Wizards are second-to-last at 123.7 PPG.
Adebayo is averaging 17.5 points this season vs. Milwaukee and is set at over/under 22.5 for Thursday. To reach 40, which is the highest DK will go on him, he's +2200. There's all but shot he gets there. The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 21.2 points. Adebayo might have carte blanche to fire at will again with Powell and Wiggins out again, and Herro and Ware questionable. To be the game's top scorer, Adebayo is a +350 third favorite behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (+195) and Herro (+260). I'd take Giannis.
Miami has won six in a row (6-0 ATS) to get into the East's No. 6 spot, just avoiding of the Play-In Tournament. To reach the full-field East playoffs, the Heat are -600 with No at +425.
