usatsi-25352392-1.jpg
USATSI

Arguably the most entertaining mid-major conference tournament around college basketball is the Missouri Valley tournament, in large part because the champion often then makes some noise in the Big Dance. The cliché is that you can't spell March Madness without Arch Madness, which is what the MVC Tournament is called. The event takes place at Enterprise Arena in St. Louis -- thus the Arch part -- and tips off Thursday with three games, the first a 4:30 ET start between No. 8 Southern Illinois and No. 9 Drake.  

Bet on the Big South conference tournament and more at BetMGM:

The winner tonight faces No. 1 Belmont in a super-quick turnaround Friday, and that should be SIU -- I have no opinion on whether it covers the 4.5-point spread.

Drake is the three-time defending tournament champion -- the only second team in league history to accomplish that -- but perhaps was due for a drop-off this season after losing two stellar coaches after the past two seasons. After spending just the 2024-25 season in charge, Ben McCollum left for Iowa and took most of the Bulldogs' top players with him. Darian DeVries left after the 2023-24 campaign for West Virginia (now at Indiana).

New coach Eric Henderson's club enters Thursday on a nine-game skid, losing a chunk of those by double digits and going 1-8 against the spread in that span. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, closed winning a season-high four straight and eight of 11 to finish .500 in league play. In a 2-7 MVC start, SIU allowed 73.0 points per game. In that closing 8-3 run, it gave up 63.1 PPG.

The Salukis and Bulldogs split the two regular-season meetings, each winning close on the road. The SportsLine Projection Model has Drake prevailing 73-72, and I simply don't agree with that.

KenPom ranks the Missouri Valley ninth of the 31 Division I leagues. The MVC has sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament 26 times, most recently in 2021 when Drake and Loyola-Chicago earned bids. That's not happening this time around with Selection Sunday on March 15.

The past three Arch Madness title games have featured both of the top two seeds, while the lowest seed to ever win the event was No. 5 (2019 Bradley and 2001 Indiana State). The lowest seed to reach the title game was No. 7 Valparaiso in 2020. No team from the MVC has won four games in four days to claim the tourney title.

Missouri Valley Tournament model win rate

Odds via DraftKings

  • No. 1 Belmont 42.3% (+155)
  • No. 3 Illinois State 19.7% (+500)
  • No. 6 Northern Iowa 12.5% (+475)
  • No. 2 Bradley 10.6% (+750)
  • No. 4 Murray State 8.6% (+1000)
  • No. 5 UIC 3.5% (+850)
  • No. 8 Southern Illinois 1.3% (+1800)
  • No. 7 Valparaiso 1.0% (+3500)
  • No. 9 Drake 0.5% (+20000)
  • No. 10 Indiana State 0.1% (+7500)
  • No. 11 Evansville 0.0% (+50000)

Bet on college basketball at DraftKings:

Belmont hasn't been in the MVC that long and won its first regular-season title in the league by three games over second-place Bradley. Former TCU transfer Tyler Lundblade was named the MVC Player of the Year, leading the team at 15.8 PPG while hitting 112 3-pointers, among the most nationally. His 93.4% rate at the free-throw line leads the country.

It seems like the Bruins are always a terrific offensive team and they rank fourth in Division I in field-goal percentage (51.7%) and third in 3-point percentage (40.5%). Belmont hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament since 2019 when it was in the Ohio Valley.

CBS Sports bracketology has the Bruins as a No. 12 seed in the East Region and facing No. 5 Vanderbilt. MVC teams are 13-4 in their first game in the NCAA Tournament since 2012. 

But if you're looking for a better value play, consider third-seeded Illinois State, especially if momentum means anything. Led by MVC first-team pick Chase Walker, the Redbirds closed with very impressive wins at Northern Iowa and vs. Belmont in the finale. They are in the opposite half of the bracket from the Bruins.

ISU had the No. 2 shooting offense in the MVC at 47.0% from the field but also the No. 2 scoring defense at 68.3 PPG. Illinois State hasn't made the Big Dance since it last won this tournament in 1998. It opens Friday against either Northern Iowa or Evansville.

Arch Madness has a reputation of being an Under bettors' heaven, and that has borne out in the past 10 seasons. In tournament games with totals of 131.5 or higher in that span, the Under is 46-22 (67.6%), courtesy of Steve Makinen. The Drake-SIU total Thursday is 139.5. 

Saturday's semifinals are on CBS Sports Network and Sunday's final is on CBS.