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USATSI

The Missouri Valley conference tournament, also known as "Arch Madness," begins Thursday with four first-round games. Despite four teams finishing the regular season with 20 or more wins, Jerry Palm's latest bracketology update on CBS Sports projects the MVC to be a one-bid league. Reigning tournament champion Drake holds the No. 1 seed, winning 15 of its last 16 games. The lone loss was to Bradley, the No. 2 seed in the tournament. Here's a look at how the bracket sets up, with the semifinals airing on CBS Sports Network and the final airing on CBS.

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Schedule

First Round

No. 8 SIU vs. No. 9 Indiana State
No. 5 Illinois State vs. No. 12 Missouri State
No. 7 Murray State vs. No. 10 Evansville
No. 6 UIC vs. No. 11 Valparaiso

Quarterfinals

QF1 - No. 1 Drake vs. No. 8 SIU/No. 9 Indiana State
QF2 - No. 4 Belmont vs. No. 5 Illinois State/No. 12 Missouri State
QF3 - No. 2 Bradley vs. No. 7 Murray State/No. 10 Evansville
QF4 - No. 3 Northern Iowa vs. No. 6 UIC/No. 11 Valparaiso

Semifinals

SF1 - Winner of QF1 vs. Winner of QF2 - CBS Sports Network
SF2 - Winner of QF3 vs. Winner of QF4 - CBS Sports Network

Final

Winner of SF1 vs. Winner of SF2 - CBS

When head coach Darian DeVries left Drake for West Virginia last year, the Bulldogs were expected to take a step back. First-year head coach Ben McCollum had other ideas, bringing three players from Division II Northwest Missouri State along with him to lead the Bulldogs to a 27-3 overall record. Bennett Stirtz leads the conference at 18.9 points per game, while Daniel Abreu and Mitch Mascari average double figures. Drake has the best defense in the conference, ranking first in points per game allowed, opponent 3-point percentage and turnovers forced. Since losing two games to open the 2025 year, the Bulldogs have won 15 of 16 heading into the conference tournament. They are -110 favorites on DraftKings to win the conference tournament.

Bradley (+340) was the lone team to defeat Drake after Jan. 5, and the Braves are deadly if they can stay hot from behind the arc. Bradley is third in points per game in the conference, and is the most efficient team from downtown. Five players who get regular minutes shoot 40% or better from 3-point range. The Braves went 4-0 against Murray State and Evansville during the regular season, so they have a good chance to get to the semifinal round. Belmont (+1200) has a similar profile to Bradley, relying on offense to win games. The Bruins lead the conference in points and assists per game, with four players averaging double figures. However, they went 1-4 against Drake, Bradley and Northern Iowa in the regular season.

Northern Iowa (+475) has a similar profile to Drake, ranking second in the conference in points per game allowed. The Panthers have two wins over Belmont and a victory over Bradley but come into the conference tournament losing two of their last three games. One intriguing longshot is Indiana State (+8000), who has lost five of its last seven games but has the conference's second-leading scorer in Samage Teel. Teel is averaging 22.8 points per game over his last six games if you take out a 1-12 shooting performance in a 77-75 loss to Belmont. The Sycamores could make a run if he keeps up his production.

SportsLine expert Thomas Casale believes Bradley and Drake will meet for a third time, with the Braves lifting the conference tournament title. But which teams are experts backing in the other conference tournaments? You can get the best bets for every conference tournament at SportsLine. You can also find the SportsLine Projection Model's simulations for every game.