College basketball expert picks best bet, value play, team to avoid for Big 12 conference tournament
College basketball expert Thomas Casale takes a look at the Big 12 conference tournament and makes his predictions

The Big 12 ended the regular season as the toughest conference in college basketball. Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas are all considered teams strong enough to make a serious Final Four run. Arizona was clearly the Big 12's top team all season, finishing with a record of 16-2. Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are the +110 favorites to win the conference tournament, followed by Houston at +200.
BYU and Texas Tech both lost key players with Richie Saunders and JT Toppin suffering season ending injuries. With those two short-handed, there is a big gap in the odds after the four top teams.
Big 12 conference tournament odds (via FanDuel)
- Arizona (+110)
- Houston (+200)
- Iowa State (+650)
- Kansas (+850)
- Texas Tech (+1700)
- BYU (+4500)
- Cincinnati (+8000)
- TCU (+8000)
- West Virginia (+25000)
- Colorado (+30000)
- Arizona State (+30000)
- UCF (+30000)
- Baylor (+30000)
Best bet: Kansas (+850)
Arizona is the best team in the Big 12 but if there is one major conference where I can see the favorite coming up short, it's the Big 12. That's not a knock on Arizona. It's a credit to the top of the Big 12, which is more competitive than the ACC, SEC or Big Ten.
I'll take a shot on Kansas at +850. The Jayhawks have run hot and cold this season. However, Kansas still has a strong defense and despite all the controversy surrounding him, the best player in Darryn Peterson. My guess is we see Peterson play a lot more and take his game up a notch in the postseason.
My strategy is always the same when attacking conference tournaments. If I don't bet the favorite, I'm looking for a team in the opposite end of the bracket. Kansas and Houston are in the bottom half of the bracket, while Arizona and Iowa State are at the top. I rate the Cougars and Jayhawks pretty close with Kansas offering much more value. I think the Jayhawks are worth a look at that number.
Best value: TCU (+8000)
If there is one team that can surprise outside the top four contenders in the Big 12, I think it's TCU. THe Horned Frogs closed the season 8-1 and like Kansas, are in the bottom half of the bracket where they don't have to face favorite Arizona early.
The thing I like about TCU is it tends to play up to its competition. The Horned Frogs beat Florida and Iowa State this season, while losing to Michigan by four and Kansas in overtime. TCU also has a couple of bad losses on its resume, but the Frogs have shown they can compete with some of the top teams in the country.
TCU's path to the final would be facing the winner of Colorado-Oklahoma State, Kansas and then likely Houston. While that certainly isn't an easy path, I actually think there is a lot more value on the Horned Frogs at +8000 than BYU or Texas Tech - two teams dealing with major injuries.
If you want to throw a few bucks on a longshot, look at TCU. The Horned Frogs likely won't win the conference tournament but if they get by Kansas, you will have opportunities to lock in a profit.
Team to avoid: Texas Tech (+1700)
I have no interest in Texas Tech at +1700. The Red Raiders responded well initially without star JT Toppin with wins over Kansas State, Cincinnati and Iowa State. Then reality set in and Texas Tech closed the season with losses to TCU and BYU.
Toppin's injury was a double-edge sword for the Red Raiders. Not only did they lose one of the best players in the country, but Texas Tech isn't a deep team. The Red Raiders rank 359th in bench minutes on KenPom and really only play seven guys. I think that will be a factor playing back-to-back nights in the rugged Big 12 Tournament.
Texas Tech's first game will likely be against Iowa State with Arizona looming in the semifinals. Beating those two teams on consecutive days without Toppin is too much to ask. I think the Red Raiders should be priced closer to +3000.















