College basketball picks: CAA, Horizon, MAAC, WCC tournament final odds, predictions, best bets
Here's a look at Tuesday's best bets for the conference tournament championship games with bids on the line
There are four 2026 NCAA bracket bids on the line Tuesday as Championship Week shifts into high gear. The Coastal Athletic, Horizon, Metro Atlantic, Northeast and West Coast conferences all wrap up Tuesday, but Long Island has locked up the Northeast Conference bid as Mercyhurst is still transitioning to Division I and is ineligible.
Merrimack is the top seed in the Metro Atlantic and is seeking its first NCAA bid after making the Northeast Tournament championship games in 2023 and '24, when it also was ineligible for the big dance. The Warriors face Siena Saints, while Gonzaga is back in the WCC final to face Santa Clara, and Horizon top seed Wright State takes on Detroit Mercy. In the CAA, Hofstra will try to finally return to the NCAA field after making it for the 2020 tournament, only to see the event canceled. The Pride have not played in the NCAA Tournament since 2001 and face a Monmouth team that last earned a bid in 2006.
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We'll take a look at the best bets for the four bid-deciding games using recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. The model entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated Over/Under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Tuesday's conference tournament final picks
Wright State -4.5
The Raiders (22-11) have routed their two tournament opponents, winning by a combined 42 points, and have scored at least 90 in their past three games. Wright State is 19-12 against the spread this season, while Detroit is 20-9 ATS. The teams have played twice, with each team winning on the road and the combined winning margin just five points. The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in road games and 3-0 ATS at neutral sites, and the SportsLine Projection Model has them covering in 64% of its simulations.
Bet on Wright State to cover at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Monmouth vs. Hofstra Over 132.5
Monmouth is 15-17 to the Over and Hofstra is 16-16 O/U. The Pride's two tournament games have gone Over their total, and the teams combine to allow almost 137 points per game. Offensively, they combine for almost 148 and the SportsLine model has the total projected at more than 140. The Over is hitting 67.2% of the time, good for a "B" grade. The two regular-season meetings came in at around 130 points, but the model is forecasting more fireworks here with a bid on the line.
Siena vs. Merrimack Over 124.5
The model projects the total in this one to approach 140 points, and Over 124.5 is hitting in a whopping 75.8% of its simulations. Merrimack's two tournament games have been low-scoring, and these are two of the top three defensive teams in the MAAC. Still, they both allow at least 66 points per game and combine to score just shy of 140. Both teams have trended to the Under, with Siena 11-22 O/U and Merrimack 12-21, but this is a low bar, and the model expects them to clear it.
Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara Under 159.5
Gonzaga can still score a ton of points, but this Bulldogs team can also play defense. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring at 85.3 points per game and the Broncos are second at 83.3. However, Gonzaga is second in the conference defensively, yielding 65.9 per contest while Santa Clara gives up 72.2. This is a high total, so the Under is hitting in 55.1% of model simulations, while Gonzaga is covering as a 7.5-point favorite 53% of the time and winning outright in 72% of simulations as a heavy favorite.
Bet on the Over in Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara, where your first bet is matched up to $250, win or lose
