F1 2026 futures odds: McLaren eyes three-peat, Mercedes' George Russell favored to win driver's title
The 2026 Formula 1 season begins on Saturday, March 7 with the Melbourne Grand Prix and here's a look at how oddsmakers see this campaign playing out
After a wild finish to the 2025 Formula 1 season which saw McLaren driver Lando Norris win his first driver's championship despite a furious late push from Red Bull's Max Verstappen, 11 teams will line up at the starting grid on Saturday, March 7 to begin the chase for the 2026 title with the Melbourne Grand Prix. There's a new set of regulations in 2026 and those who follow the sport closely will also recognize the addition of a new team. Cadillac has joined the party with veterans Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez serving as the two drivers. While nothing can be definitive about how each team has been impacted by the new rules, pre-season testing suggests McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari are the top four contenders for the constructor's championship.
McLaren is going for a third straight constructor's title and last season's triumph wasn't particularly close with Norris and Oscar Piastri routinely earning podiums to truly race away from the competition. McLaren scored 833 points, well ahead of second-place Mercedes with 469 points.
The driver's championship figures to be much closer, with Norris eyeing a repeat win while Verstappen, George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and Piastri all figure to be strong challengers. Verstappen made one of the greatest pushes last season, winning six of the last nine races in pursuit of his fifth straight driver's title. He finished two points short, though he was aided by some McLaren technical errors and poor driver management with Piastri also in the title chase.
We'll take a look at the latest F1 futures odds for the 2026 season and make some predictions for the constructor's and driver's championships.
F1 2026 constructor's championship
Even though McLaren are the two-time reigning champions, they are priced behind both Mercedes and Ferrari at most sportsbooks. The dynamic between Norris and Piastri appeared to cause problems for management at the end of the 2025 campaign, leading to poor race results and a stunning double disqualification in Las Vegas. However, given McLaren's insane gap in 2025 in the constructor's standings, a +275 price point at BetMGM is tempting. Mercedes is the odds-on favorite at +110 while Ferrari is +200. Red Bull will score points with Verstappen but the lack of a consistent second driver has the constructor priced at +800.
Russell and Kimi Antonelli were a potent combination at the end of the 2025 season, giving Mercedes a strong push to overtake Ferrari and finish second in the constructor's title. Antonelli had some rough patches in the middle of the season but showed growth and should be a strong second driver behind Russell. Ferrari had growing pains as well with Hamilton struggling in his first season but that's another strong tandem with him and Leclerc. It'll come down to team strategy and which driver can get the most out of the car.
F1 constructor's championship odds (via BetMGM)
- Mercedes (+110)
- Ferrari (+200)
- McLaren (+275)
- Red Bull (+800)
- Aston Martin (+5000)
- Alpine (+6600)
- Williams (+8000)
- Audi (+15000)
- Haas (+20000)
- Racing Bulls (+30000)
- Cadillac (+50000)
F1 2026 driver's championship
Russell is the favorite to win his first title, which makes sense given Mercedes' position in the constructor's odds table. He's a +200 favorite at FanDuel, and Verstappen is behind him at +330. Leclerc is +500 and his Ferrari teammate Hamilton is +700, while Antonelli rounds out the top five at +800. The two McLaren drivers who had essentially made this a two-driver battle in 2025 for most of the season are next, with the reigning champion Norris priced at +1000 and Piastri at +1200. This all suggests genuine questions about who has the fastest car.
Mercedes and Red Bull have an advantage in that Russell and Verstappen are the clear No. 1 drivers, so they can implement team rules more cleanly than Ferrari and McLaren. Leclerc had a better finish than Hamilton in 2025 and has been a Ferrari mainstay but Hamilton's overall body of work is hard to ignore. We already saw McLaren's strategy managing two championship drivers nearly backfire a season ago, and Ferrari have a history of questionable tactical decisions both on and off the track.
Verstappen showed out after Christian Horner's depature in 2025, and his performances speak for themselves. By comparison, Russell only won two races last season and both came when he was on pole. He finished nearly 100 points behind Piastri despite the latter having one retirement and one disqualification. Even if the cars are as close together as many seem to think they are, that's a substantial gap. And that's before considering Verstappen or Norris.
F1 driver's championship odds (via FanDuel)
- George Russell (+200)
- Max Verstappen (+330)
- Charles Leclerc (+500)
- Lewis Hamilton (+700)
- Kimi Antonelli (+800)
- Lando Norris (+1000)
- Oscar Piastri (+1200)
- Fernando Alonso (+4000)
- Isack Hadjar (+8000)
- Pierre Gasly (+10000)
The rest of the field
It's hard to think of any team surprising the top four but Williams is a good longshot option at +8000 on DraftKings. Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon put together a strong season in 2025 to a fifth-place finish in the constructor's standings. There's managerial tension at Aston Martin (+5000), Alpine (+6500) and Haas (+6500, while Williams appears to have the most synergy and momentum from the 2025 campaign.
On the driver's side, Fernando Alonso is priced at +6500 and he has won two championships previously. However, his vision for Aston Martin was and what it has become might push him to ultimately look for a different opportunity. Sainz and Albon are both +15000 and while I did suggest Williams as a good longshot, it's hard to back either driver especially since both are angling for that top driver spot within the team. It's hard to pick against anyone driving for the top four teams, but Norris and Piastri do offer value given their 2025 success.
Predictions
If we're operating under the assumption the top four cars are all similar, it'll come down to which driver can get the most out of the vehicle. That alone points me to Verstappen, who appeared to re-discover his joy for racing late in the season. Management tactics aside, Norris getting the proverbial monkey off his back might allow him to finally relax and think less on the track. Instincts, especially for talented drivers, tend to win out. As the saying goes in Top Gun: Maverick, don't think just do. That could push Norris to new heights.
The reigning champion and his teammate Piastri were so dominant a year ago that it's hard to back anyone other than McLaren in the constructor's championship, even if the cars end up being similar in performance. I could see Mercedes provide a real challenge given how Russell and Antonelli finished the 2025 season but I'd still back Team Papaya at the current price.
