F1 odds, picks: Mercedes looks to keep hot start going at Japanese Grand Prix before month-long hiatus
The 2026 F1 season continues on Saturday with the Japanese Grand Prix
Formula 1 fans will have to savor the Japanese Grand Prix, as it will be the last event on the circuit for more than a month. Due to conflict in the Middle East, the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia events will not take place and will not be rescheduled, so this is the last event until the drivers meet in Miami on May 3. For many, the month-long break early in the season will be a welcome sign.
Mercedes won't be among those satisfied with the gap. George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have finished 1-2 in each of the first two races and it's clear they have the best car at the moment. While other teams can make improvements throughout the season, a month-long gap allows for that process to occur faster than if there were intermittent races. However, Mercedes can take some solace in knowing the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia events won't be contested at all this season, so that's two fewer opportunities for competitors to make up ground.
We'll take a look at the Japanese Grand Prix, who is favored to win and make some predictions for the race.
Japanese Grand Prix 2026 odds (via DraftKings)
- George Russell (-175)
- Kimi Antonelli (+275)
- Lewis Hamilton (+850)
- Charles Leclerc (+900)
- Oscar Piastri (+2800)
- Max Verstappen (+2800)
- Lando Norris (+2800)
- Isack Hadjar (+13000)
- Pierre Gasly (+40000)
- Oliver Bearman (+40000)
You can tell how the F1 season has gone so far just by looking at the odds. Russell and Antonelli have superior cars at the moment, and Hamilton and Leclerc have finished right behind them. Ferrari simply doesn't have the same pace as the Mercedes, even if its drivers have more experience. The most confounding development is McLaren's struggles. Last season, Norris and Piastri were doing what Russell and Antonelli are doing right now. In 2026, each driver has been hit with a "DNS." Verstappen, the reigning four-time Japanese Grand Prix champion, crashed in qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix and did not finish the Chinese Grand Prix. The cars are much harder to drive this season and it looks like only two teams have figured things out.
While Bearman is unlikely to overtake drivers to the point where he's in contention to win the event, the Haas driver might be worth backing to finish in the top 6 at +350. Bearman finished seventh in Australia and fifth in China, so he's clearly got the speed and ability to maneuver. With many top drivers struggling to handle their vehicles and 12 combined DNF/DNS results through the first two races, simply getting across the line is an accomplishment. Bearman has done that and then some. Gasly improved his position from 10th in Australia to sixth in China, so he's also seemingly starting to figure some things out. The Alpine driver is also +350 to finish in the top 6.
Predictions
It's impossible to think any team other than Mercedes can win this event. Russell and Antonelli are in great form right now and, more importantly, have the best car. Things are likely going to even out more beginning with Miami after each constructor has more than a month to make adjustments, but right now I'd take either of them to win. You can bet on Russell and Antonelli to go 1-2 in any order for -141, and you can wager on Russell winning with Antonelli finishing on the podium for -132. Antonelli winning and Russell finishing on the podium is +312. While it's extremely tempting to look at Verstappen, the four-time reigning champion, at +2800 or even grab Hamilton at +850, Mercedes is clearly the team of the moment.
