F1 odds, picks: Will Mercedes continue to dominate at Chinese Grand Prix?
The 2026 F1 season moves to Shanghai for the Chinese Grand Prix
Mercedes dominated the Melbourne Grand Prix to start the 2026 F1 season, with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli registering a 1-2 finish to secure 43 points for the team. The biggest story, however, was the sheer margin of Mercedes' victory. Russell finished just three seconds ahead of Antonelli but he was 15 seconds ahead of third-place Charles Leclerc, sparking questions about whether the constructor managed to manipulate its engine to extract more power on hot track conditions. All teams were subject to new car regulations in 2026 but those tests were conducted in neutral conditions, which is not the case on the actual track.
The 2026 F1 season continues in Shanghai with the Chinese Grand Prix with a fascinating backdrop after what transpired in Melbourne. It's clear the drivers are still getting used to the new cars, and many experts felt the track in Australia was tough to navigate, so it's hard to make any long-term judgments after those results. We'll look at the latest odds to win the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix, the key storylines heading into the event and some predictions for the race.
Chinese Grand Prix 2026 odds (via DraftKings)
- George Russell (-140)
- Kimi Antonelli (+550)
- Charles Leclerc (+650)
- Max Verstappen (+750)
- Lewis Hamilton (+850)
- Isack Hadjar (+2800)
- Oscar Piastri (+3000)
- Lando Norris (+3000)
- Arvid Lindblad (+25000)
- Liam Lawson (+25000)
Hamilton has won this event six times, though his last triumph came in 2019. That was also the last time Mercedes won this event as a constructor, but its two drivers are sizable favorites after dominating the opening race. Russell is -275 to finish in the top two while Antonelli is -140. McLaren's Piastri, who won this event last year, had a disastrous start to the 2026 campaign after crashing out in a pre-race lap when he lost control of the car. This race has not had a repeat champion since Hamilton got back-to-back victories in 2014-15.
The Shanghai track itself isn't too complicated outside of the first corner, which features a 270-degree turn with the radius of the turn decreasing as the corner continues. If drivers keep having issues with their cars in terms of handling and braking, this could be a potentially devastating spot right at the start. While qualifying is always important, the stakes are higher when making the initial corner first could be the difference between finishing the race or not. Russell is the +110 favorite to win the pole while Antonelli is +350. Leclerc and Red Bull's Max Verstappen are tied at +450. Verstappen crashed in qualifying at the Melbourne Grand Prix but managed to finish sixth.
One of the most shocking performances at Melbourne came from Aston Martin. The constructor was seen as a potential darkhorse to challenge the top four teams, but Lance Stroll finished 15 laps behind Russell and Fernando Alonso didn't even finish the race. Alonso might have more success in Shanghai as a two-time Chinese Grand Prix winner, last taking the event in 2013. He's +1000 to register a top-10 finish in 2026, largely because his car might be among the worst in the field.
Predictions
For all the talk of the new regulations forcing drivers to adapt to tougher vehicles, Verstappen made up a 12-spot gap at Melbourne. That makes him an appealing pick to win at +750, especially since he took this event in 2024. Verstappen is +250 to finish in the top two. These lines will adjust after qualifying, but if Verstappen can avoid another disaster and start near the top of the grid, he's shown the ability to make up ground and has a great chance at taking down Russell and Mercedes.
