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No. 2 Houston and No. 6 Iowa State meet on Monday, Feb. 16 in a high-profile Big 12 clash at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa, where the host Cyclones haven't lost this season. Iowa State lost earlier in the week to TCU but bounced back in a big way on Saturday, defeating Kansas 74-56. Houston is coming off a 78-64 win over Kansas State, it's sixth victory in a row. The Cougars have lost just once on the road this season and hold a one-game lead in the Big 12 conference standings heading into Monday's game.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and it entered Week 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 13-7 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

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Houston vs. Iowa State model picks for Feb. 16

Houston +2.5

Kelvin Sampson's squad covers the spread in 52% of model simulations. The Cougars are 4-2 ATS on the road this season but just 2-4 ATS against ranked opponents. This is the first contest of the season where they have been underdogs. On the flip side, the Cyclones are just 7-6-1 ATS as the home team despite having a perfect overall record in Ames.

Iowa State money line

Even though the model is backing Houston on the spread, it is taking Iowa State on the money line as the Cyclones win in 56% of simulations. Houston's lone loss this season did come on the road at Texas Tech, while Iowa State has not lost yet at home and is coming off a massive victory over Kansas on Saturday. Iowa State is 19-2 on the season after a win.

Over 135.5

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, according to KenPom, with Houston ranking fifth in defensive efficiency and Iowa State right behind in sixth. However, the SportsLine model still likes the Over on this low total as it hits in 80.4% of simulations and receives a "B" grade. Houston is 10-15 to the Over on the season while Iowa State is 11-14 to the Over, so defense should be on display even if the model is backing the Over to hit.