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Inside the Lines team

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model's main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. 

Last week's best main market bets were a perfect 5-0, including predicting the Bucs to beat Houston by 1 point.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (CAR -1.5, 46.5 to ATL -5.5, 43.5)

The Falcons' dominant win over Minnesota fueled by a vicious pass rush and unstoppable running game totally moved the line to go from an implied score of Carolina 24, Atlanta 23 to now Atlanta 25, Carolina 19. Our model has both teams slightly above their team totals with a score of Atlanta 26, Carolina 21 so our best main market bet is: 

Atlanta at Carolina Over 43.5 (-105 FanDuel)

Carolina has allowed 26+ in their last six games and eight of their last nine games. On the flip side, the Panthers will clean house (GM, coach, Bryce Young) if they don't at least show real progress on offense and average 23+ points. They will always look to score as many points as possible and throw to whoever they need to to score (Hunter Renfrow) even if it means a lack of player development (Xavier Legette).

Bijan Robinson Over 111.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM)

In Week 1, Robinson did his damage with a long receiving TD and 100 of his 124 yards were receiving yards. The next week, he rushed for 143 yards with just 25 through the air, but Tyler Allgeier got the lone touchdown of the game. Since we don't know if Robinson will get the goal-line carries or how he'll get his yards, we'll take the side where he just has to get yards... something we are very high on with a 123 rush+rec yard projection.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (GB -5.5, 43.5 to GB -7.5, 41.5)

The consensus line movement to GB ATS and the Under is 100% correlated to the Micah Parsons infused Packers defense shutting down the Joe Flacco Browns offense. We totally agree that the Browns won't have success offensively. We also think Green Bay will have more than the 24.5 their odds imply. The Ravens barely got any rushing yards out of Derrick Henry and still put up 41 points versus the Browns, so our favorite main market pick is:

Green Bay -7.5 (-110 Caesars)

The line is steaming to -8.5 in some books and probably could reach -9 by Sunday so act now. Jim Schwartz sold out vs the run to stop Derrick Henry and it worked. But in doing so Lamar Jackson, despite being off with his accuracy early, had 4 TDs, 0 INTs and earned the highest career passer rating in history. 

Yards aren't points. Even when the Browns are elite in yards allowed they give up a ton of points. Two years ago the "No. 1 defense" based on yardage allowed 30+ on the road. On the flip side, the Packers' pass rush is vicious with Parsons in the mix. He is getting healthier and is coming off a mini-bye. Joe Flacco never was mobile and at 40 years old he is a statue. He will get the ball out quickly to avoid taking sacks but his only option are RBs and TEs who aren't capable of getting the 6 or 7 yards after catch needed for first downs.

Joe Flacco Over 0.5 Pass Interception (-165 BetMGM)

We hit on this same prop each week and while he may get benched for Dillon Gabriel, it'll likely be only if he throws another bad pick like he did versus Nate Wiggins last week. Our model would set this line at -300. Joe Flacco, and this is a compliment, does not care about throwing picks. He's going to chuck the ball down the field and not always with great accuracy, especially if Micah Parsons is bearing down on him from behind.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (HOU -1.5, 46.5 to JAX -1.5, 44.5)

The Texans were lucky to score 19 versus Tampa Bay. They have had one decent offensive performance in their last 8 games. They would need their last three point totals combined (42) to have a higher score than the Ravens have had in each of their first two games. As as result, the odds project them to score three fewer points than the lookahead line had so the Jags are now favored. With a projection of Jags -1 we have no value so the slight main market lean is:

Texans at Jaguars Under 44.5 Points (-110 BetMGM)

At 58% this is a solid lean on the Under. The line is down to 43.5 on ESPN Bet so you'll probably want to grab this line before it moves.  

The Texans offense has struggled but their defense has played very well allowing over 20 points just once in their last five games. Something is up with the Trevor Lawrence-Brian Thomas Jr. connection and without that dynamic in place the Jags are projected to come under their 23 odds implied total.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (MIN -1.5, 47.5 to MIN -3, 42.5)

The drop-off from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning was deemed to be more damaging than the drop-off between J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz. I don't necessarily agree with that, but that's what the point spread movement indicates. I actually think the Browning drop-off isn't as massive, as long as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy, as most think. And given how awful he has looked in seven of eight quarters, I think there's no real drop-off between McCarthy and Wentz, so the best main market bet is:

Cincinnati at Minnesota Over 41.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

I love that DraftKings is offering a full point over most books. Browning is 4-3 as a starter but I'm going to count last week as "his win" which makes him 5-3. A 62.5 win% is just a little under Joe Burrow's 66% career win percentage. Browning's passer rating is 95.1, which is not that much worse than Burrow's 101. You could argue Browning's small sample size is inflating his numbers OR you could say the more experience, the better he'll be.

Starting Minnesota RB Aaron Jones is also out, but Jordan Mason is the better runner, clearly, and getting him 18+ carries is only going to help Minnesota offensively. Plus, everyone can put up 24 versus the Bengals defense, even Carson Wentz.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (NE -1.5, 43.5 to PIT -1.5, 44.5)

The line has steamed to Pittsburgh because the markets recognized that "fluke" plays significantly hurt Pittsburgh (botched kick return TD, tipped TD leading to an INT) but helped New England (kick return TD after allowing a punt return TD, Tua Tagovailoa inexcusable interception). Our model agrees that these types of plays tend to even out, and if they do this week, the best main market bet is:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-115 Consensus)

The Steelers gave TJ Watt a Myles Garrett-sized bag, but so far Watt has not earned this money. Drake Maye has already been sacked seven times, so I think this is the week the Steelers' pass rush finally gets cooking. When Watt starts wrecking things, it not only results in loss yardage, it also results in turnovers which is why we have New England with nearly one more turnover per sim than Pittsburgh and that is driving our value on Pittsburgh.

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125 BetMGM)

Not that Aaron Rodgers is petty, but I think he's very aggravated that Calvin Austin's screw up cost him a TD, resulted in an IN  and for now put him at the No. 2 highest career passer rating to Lamar Jackson. Rodgers may not target Austin, but I do think he's going to do whatever it takes to get that clean two or three TDs with zero picks this game. He is averaging 1.67 TDs per sim and has averaged 1.7 since the start of last season. 

We always like when a line is offering plus money despite it being lower than both a player's relevant average and our projection.

LA Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4.5, 46.5 to PHI -3.5, 44.5)

With both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams having a big Week 2, the markets are high on the Rams offensive potential. With another ugly win with minimal passing the markets are not high on Philadelphia offensively. If the squeaky wheel gets the grease, then A.J. Brown is very slippery these days and we think this is the week to 1, buy the Eagles' offense, 2, continue loving their defense and 3, capitalizing on the Rams steam to bet:

Philadelphia Eagles money line (-180 DraftKings)

This line implies around a 64% chance, but they win over 73% of the simulations. There are two schools of thought about the Eagles' offense: The passing game is broken and they are vulnerable OR they controlled both games versus Dallas and Kansas City and won without major production from their star receivers.

I'm old enough to remember the Eagles putting up 28 versus the Rams in the playoffs, 55 against Washington and then 40 on Kansas City on their way to a dominant Super Bowl win. 

Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (+120 DraftKings)

He is still minus money in most books, making this DraftKings price one to jump on. He was one of our top ATD bets last week but unfortunately the Rams decided to throw second-year RB Blake Corum a bone on the goal line for his first career touchdown.

That's not going to happen two weeks in a row. Williams has scored a rushing TD in 12 of his last 20 games, which would typically translate to a -130 to -150 line depending on the defense. If you throw in the fact that he has accounted for over 10% of Los Angeles' receiving touchdowns, you get really good value. Our model has him at around 58% to score.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -7.5, 45.5 to TB -6.5, 44.5)

Tampa Bay's offense has not been consistent in both of its wins, but Baker Mayfield has come up extremely clutch when they had to have it. It's puzzling that a very good team would get faded by the "smart money" after they started 2-0 (both on the road) and the opponent is a bad team that just got killed. When you add in the fact that we get over the key number of -7, our best bet is:

Tampa Bay -6.5 (-118 FanDuel)

The odds imply a score of Tampa Bay 25.5, Jets 19. Our model has the same projection for the Jets but has Tampa Bay closer to 30 points. Aaron Glenn is a defensive coach, and everyone assumed the Jets would continue to be a great defense. But they have allowed 30, 34, 20 (to Miami), and 40 their last four games.

Tampa Bay averaged 29 points per game last season. Putting up 20 on the road versus Houston is actually a solid number. Putting up 23 at Atlanta is now seen as a good number after what we saw what Atlanta did to Minnesota. There is buy-low value on Tampa Bay after the Bucs have only averaged 21.5 so far this season.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (TEN -1.5, 45.5 to IND -3.5, 43.5)

Daniel Jones may be playing out of his mind statistically, but when you watch him and the Colts play, you don't see them doing anything out of the ordinary. They run the ball with a proven superstar RB, Jones uses his legs as a threat and then makes the easy pass to Tyer Warren. They won't averaged 30 points per game but their floor is super hig,  which is why our best bet is:

Indianapolis -3.5 (-115 BetMGM)

I wish we had grabbed this earlier at -3, but we're definitely going to grab it before it moves to -5, which it has in some spots. Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco were able to make the Colts a 22 points-per-game team. The Titans allowed over 27 per game last season and allowed 33 at home to the Rams last week.

Daniel Jones is good enough to put up the 24 needed to cover this spread.

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (WAS -7.5, 47.5 -> WAS -3.5, 44.5)

Jayden Daniels is not practicing (but he was throwing on the sidelines) but Marcus Mariota is an excellent backup. This is a buy-low spot since Washington's offense struggled so much against the Packers. But so did the Lions' offense, and they just put up 52 on a bad defense. The Raiders allowed 25.5 per game last season and while they did hold the Patriots to just 13 and the Chargers just 20, the model still sees a lot of 2024 in them, which is why our best bet is:

Washington Commanders -3 (-115 FanDuel)

You definitely want to grab this -3 while you still can. Our model value is based on Washington scoring over 24 points. They averaged +3 more at home (30) than it did on the road last season. Marcus Mariota was fine in the two games he played meaningful snaps, including a 40-7 win at home over Carolina.

The Commanders lost Austin Ekeler for the yea, but that could make them more explosive if Jacory Croskey-Merritt (99 yards on 14 carries this season) provides the lightning and Chris Rodriguez (inactive so far this season) is the thunder. Rodriguez had 94 yards and a TD on just 13 carries agianst the Titans.

Denver Broncos at LA Chargers (LAC -1.5, 44.5 to LAC -2.5, 46)

Justin Herbert has looked fantastic to start the season, which I think reminds bettors of the early Herbert years where he would pass for massive numbers and the Chargers would lose games 30 to 29. The Chargers' excellent defense deserves as much credit as Herbert does for the Chargers' early success. When you consider that and the Broncos' defense, our best bet is:

Broncos at Chargers Under 46 Points (-110 Fanatics)

As good as the Broncos' defense was last season, it was the Chargers that allowed fewer points (18.5 per game). These teams are familiar with each other. Bo Nix has a season of film for defenses to study. The Chargers are very familiar with J.K. Dobbins, who flipped sides this off-season. 

Even though he's an offensive genius, Sean Payton is still an old-school coach. Just like last week's game against the Raiders when Jim Harbaugh-led teams go against another old-school coach (last week was Pete Carroll), both teams tend to be comfortable trying to win on defense, field position and running the ball, which ends up winding that clock down faster and limiting points.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (SEA -6.5, 43.5 to SEA -7.5, 41.5)

No one believed in Spencer Rattler less than me heading into the season, but he's passed for over 200 yards both games, has three passing TDs and zero picks, and the Saints have been in a position to tie or win on the final drive of both games. The line movement over the key number of -7 resulted in a good consensus line of Saints +7.5, so our best bet is:

New Orleans Saints +7.5 (Consensus)

With some books leaning towards +8,  I'd probably wait to see if we can get more line value by Sunday. Between growing faith in Rattler and actual faith in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson I think the Saints have enough offensively to put up more than 17 points and cover. 

Both Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori could be out again. Their absence wasn't as costly against the Steelers because the Steelers only have one big play WR that Aaron Rodgers trusts (DK Metcalf). The Saints have Olave, Shaheed and even veteran Brandin Cooks there to capitalize on injuries to Seattle's secondary.

Brandin Cooks Over 17.5 rush+rec yards (-110 BetMGM)

He's gone over this both weeks this season with 26 receiving yards in both games. He's averaging three targets and 2.5 receptions. His RECYD line is 16.5 (-115), so we're getting a minimal chance of him having a rushing yard. But he is used in jet sweeps, and I think the Saints will have to get creative versus the Seahawks' defense.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (CHI -3, 47.5 to CHI -1.5, 50)

The steam is on Dallas ATS and the Over after Chicago's defense couldn't look worse and the Cowboys' offense put up 40 against the Giants. The betting public is actually siding with the Bears ATS and the Under, so to see such major reverse line movement you really know where the smart money is. We agree with the sharps and are taking:

Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-120 FanDuel)

Since we have Dallas winning outright 58% of the simulations the better value is probably to take them -108 on the money line, but I've lost too many bets thinking no way do they lose by one point. I'll pay the steeper -120 to get the point.

We give the Cowboys a 61% chance of covering primarily because we have Dallas scoring 28 points versus an odds-implied 24.3 points. Not only did they just put up 40, they actually averaged 24 on the road last year, which was +6 higher than at home. Chicago's defense couldn't look more horrible the last five quarters. George Pickens broke out late against the Giants and KeVontae Turpin is providing big plays on offense and not just special teams anymore. I'm not saying they are the Lions, but they have three scary WR weapons and the Bears can't double all of them.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (SF -3.5, 47.5 to SF -1.5, 43.5)

The line movement is tied to no faith in Mac Jones' ability to put up more than 23 points. Jones is coming off his best statistical game ever perhaps (26/39 for 279 yards, three TDs, zero INTs). Christian McCaffrey looks healthy and has nearly as man yards receiving as he did rushing. The backup TEs for the 49er combined for a Kittle like stat line (six rec, 45 yards, one TD), so our best bet is:

San Francisco -1.5 (-110 Caesars)

The Cardinals' defense struggled to put away the Panthers at home last week. Last season, their defense was much worse on the road allowing 25.8 per game (versus just 19.2 at home). Even in a down year the 49er averaged +5 more at home (25) last season than on the road. A -1.5 spread implies that on a neutral field Arizona is a better team than San Francisco. I do not agree.

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" 

These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.