Italy vs. Venezuela odds, picks, expert best bets for World Baseball Classic semifinal on March 16
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca reveals his best bets for Italy vs. Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic semifinal on Monday
The World Baseball Classic continues on Monday at 8 p.m. ET with the second semifinal of the tournament featuring Italy and Venezuela. Italy is undefeated so far in the competition, taking out Puerto Rico in the quarterfinal round 8-6 to advance to Monday's game. Venezuela upset defending champion Japan in the quarterfinal 8-5 to make it to this contest. The winner of Monday's game will face the United States in the final on Tuesday, March 17. Before locking in your bets for this game, be sure to check out what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is playing for Italy vs. Venezuela. Bet on Italy vs. Venezuela at DraftKings, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets instantly after wagering $5+:
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Italy vs. Venezuela on Monday.
Italy vs. Venezuela best bets
- Italy first 5 innings money line (+135): 0.5 units
- Maikel Garcia 2+ total bases (+145): 0.5 units
- Maikel Garcia to hit a home run (+800): 0.25 units
Venezuela beat the defending champs in a sizable upset to move on to this game and secure their spot in the 2028 Summer Olympics. The Olympic qualifying was said to be more important to manager Omar Lopez than winning the entire WBC tournament but now that they're here, why not win the dang thing!
Led by Ronald Acuna Jr and a plethora of MLB hitters in their lineup, Venezuela's offense could be a problem for last minute Italian starter, Aaron Nola. Originally, Michael Lorenzen was slated to start here but manager Francisco Cervelli made a change to Nola after his stellar performance against Mexico. Italy was a major underdog in that game and comes in here as an underdog against Keider Montero, who will likely be asked for at least four or five innings based on how much the Venezuelan bullpen was used in their last game. I give the edge to Nola over Montero but Venezuela has a great bullpen so they get the edge over an Italian bullpen that I think is rather suspect.
Venezuela's offense has been worse than the numbers the Italian bats have been putting up but in the end, Venezuela has far more experienced MLB talent making it a tough game to handicap. I think they ultimately outlast Team Italy and with Acuna's experience against Nola, the former NL MVP could be the main difference maker. He's priced as such for all the hitter props so I stayed away, but I always like taking a shot on a home run with Acuna.
At the +135 price on Italy's moneyline in the F5, I'm willing to back the Italian squad with Nola on the mound. The bats will need to jump on Montero early, because those big guns from the Venezuelan bullpen will be eagerly waiting to make an impact. Daniel Palencia, Eduard Bazardo and Angel Zerpa could shorten the game significantly but with a potential championship game looming on Tuesday, I think they push Montero as long as possible to save arms. Montero had a 4.67 xERA in MLB last year and was in just the 11th percentile for whiff rate, so there isn't much swing and miss here to be worried about. I'll back the Italian team to do some damage against Montero, but I don't want to get into betting them to have more depth and a better bullpen over the full game.
Garcia is tied for the tournament lead in hits with eight, and he's been locked in hitting near the top of the order for Venezuela. We cashed on the 2+ hits + runs _ RBI prop against Japan but that line has taken a massive odds hit and is now at -150. I'm not seeing any value in paying that price so I've pivoted to the total bases market at +145. Garcia has been Over this number in each of the last two games, slugging a 400+ foot home run against Japan, and racking up four hits against the Dominican Republic. He's been up to the challenge against the toughest competition and the pivot to total bases works better with Garcia than other players. He's recorded just one walk in 20 WBC plate appearances and hasn't been a huge walk guy so far in his MLB career, below the 40th percentile in the majors for two seasons before jumping up last year. He should once again be looking to hit when at the plate and this price on the total bases and home run bets have value in this spot.
