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Scottie Scheffler, coming off a fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach, will headline the 2026 Genesis Invitational field. The second Signature Event of the PGA Tour season begins on Thursday from The Riviera Country Club, where Kalshi prices Scheffler at $0.23 per share to win the Genesis Invitational 2026. The No. 1-ranked player in the world has recorded 18 consecutive top-10 finishes and is being traded at $0.71 to crack the top 10 this week.

SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure's golf model is giving Scheffler a 67% chance to finish in the top 10 at Riviera, slightly below the 71% market value. Read on for more PGA predictions. Sign up for Kalshi with the promo code CBSSPORTS, trade $10 on sports and receive your $10 cash bonus here:

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Scottie Scheffler Kalshi prediction markets

  • Scottie Scheffler to win The Genesis Inviational ($0.23 per share)
  • Scottie Scheffler Top 10 finish "No" ($0.71 per share)
  • Scottie Scheffler Round 1 leader  ($0.09 per share)

Scottie Scheffler to win The Genesis Invitational ($0.23 per share)

Scheffler has racked up 20 career PGA Tour victories, including The American Express in his first start of the 2026 season. The 29-year-old has finished T-4 or better in all three of his starts this season, and secured a T-3 finish at The Genesis Invitational in 2025. Scheffler enters this week's event ranked first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total (2.796) and strokes gained: off the tee (1.026), while ranking fourth in green in regulation percentage (78.24%) and fifth in putting average (1.621). McClure's model is giving Scheffler a 17.4% chance to win this week, slightly below the market share at Kalshi. Trade on Scheffler at Kalshi here:

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 finish ($0.71 per share)

Scheffler has been a lock to finish inside the top 10 dating back to last season. In fact, Scheffler has recorded a top-10 finish in each of his past 18 starts on the PGA Tour. He's also finished inside the top 10 in his last two starts at The Genesis Invitational. McClure's golf model is giving Scheffler a 67% chance to finish inside the top 10 at Rivieria, slightly below the 71% market value. Trade on Scheffler at Kalshi here:

Scottie Scheffler Round 1 leader ($0.09 per share)

Scheffler has gotten off to slow starts in each of his last two outings, shooting an opening round 73 at the WM Phoenix Open and a first round 72 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. However, Scheffler fired a 63 in the first round at The American Express in Janaury, and he enters this week's tournament ranked first in scoring average (66.50) and second in birdie average (6.17). Back Scheffler to be the leader after Round 1 here:

How Kalshi's Scottie Scheffler's markets work

For every Kalshi market, a set of regulations on what qualifies as a successful trade is available on the market's page. Therefore, for Kalshi Scottie Scheffler markets, you can find a rules summary that specifically defines how to trade across all available markets. 

Those guidelines regulate how value is measured, how Kalshi chooses to verify the source of the outcome and the designated timeline for the specific event. Be sure to read the rules completely for each market before trading, and sign up here:

Traders also have the option before any market is settled to offer their shares for sale at a price per share set by them. If other traders buy those shares, they could profit before the market is settled. For example, if you have purchased a position at $0.23 per share and are able to sell it at $0.46 per share, you have doubled your money (minus any Kalshi transaction fees that are typically 2 percent or less).

Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements.  Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction.