Miami vs. Indiana CFP National Championship Game odds, picks, predictions, best bets for Monday, Jan. 19

College football will crown a national champion on Monday, Jan. 19 as the Miami Hurricanes try to upset the Indiana Hoosiers at Hard Rock Stadium in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff title game. The Hurricanes, hoping to return to glory after a long climb back to the elite tier of college football, are looking for their first championship since 2001. The Hoosiers, undefeated after making a surprising run to the playoff a year ago, are one win away from one of the greatest title runs the sport has ever seen. It would be Indiana's first national championship on the gridiron.

Here's a look at the latest Miami vs. Indiana odds, along with some predictions and best bets for the contest with the help of the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. For the latest game forecast for Miami vs. Indiana, check out SportsLine. 

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Miami vs. Indiana, National Championship Game (7:30 p.m. ET)

The Hurricanes have played every game close, which is part of their identity centered around defense, running the football, controlling the tempo and winning at the line of scrimmage. Miami looked rusty when it outlasted Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round but was sharp when upsetting defending champion Ohio State 24-14 on New Year's Eve in the quarterfinal. Carson Beck, who has been inconsistent at times, had a heroic moment with what would be the game-winning touchdown run against Ole Miss in a 31-27 semifinal win to set up a home title game. Miami is going to be without tight end Elijah Lofton for this game and won't have safety Xavier Lucas for the first half due to a targeting call, but key defensive linemen Akheem Mesidor and Ahmad Moten Sr. are good to go after suffering injuries in the game against Ole Miss. If Miami can control the line of scrimmage defensively and keep things close, the home crowd could become a bigger factor.

Indiana has looked like a machine for most of the season and really turned things up in the playoff. The Hoosiers steamrolled the Alabama Crimson Tide 38-3 in a statement win the quarterfinal, then followed it up with a 56-22 blowout of the Oregon Ducks in the semifinal where the final scoreline somehow looks better than the actual flow of the game. Curt Cignetti's team has dominated the trenches and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is making pinpoint throws routinely. Mendoza, who played his high school football in Miami, is returning to his former stomping grounds with a chance to cement his standing as the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

Miami vs. Indiana picks, best bets

Spread: Miami +8.5

The SportsLine Projection Model has the Hoosiers as 8.5-point favorites, though the line has moved down to 7.5 at some sportsbooks. The total is 47.5. Indiana is a consensus -340 favorite while Miami is a +270 underdog. The model has the Hurricanes covering the spread in 53% of simulations and I'd lean that way as well. Miami can control the line of scrimmage, especially with its defense largely intact, and won't be tempted to get into a fast tempo. Controlling the clock and methodical football is a hallmark of Mario Cristobal's side and that bodes well for the Canes in this matchup.

Money line: Indiana 

The model sees value on Miami on the money line as the Hurricanes win in 36% of simulations, but I don't see this happening. The Hoosiers simply don't make mistakes and even in a hostile environment, they can lean on their run game and Mendoza. Even though the Hurricanes match up well, they aren't a quick strike offense that can pull away from Indiana. The Hoosiers might win close, but I see them completing the story with a national title.

Total: Over 47.5

Indiana surpassed the 47.5 total on its own in the semifinal against Oregon. The Hoosiers are unlikely to get another 50-burger here, and Miami should keep things relatively close for most of the first half if not the whole game. The model has the Over hitting on 47.5 in 50% of simulations and given Indiana's prowess, I like that. SportsLine projects a final score of 27-21 in favor of Indiana, and I think that's the correct range for this game.