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Two Big Ten squads aiming to move up the standings square off Friday night when No. 10 Michigan State heads to Madison for a bout with Wisconsin. The Spartans are 20-4 overall this season and are 10-3 in conference play. They rebounded from consecutive losses to Michigan and Minnesota with a win over a ranked Illinois squad on Saturday. The Badgers are 17-7 overall and 9-4 in the Big Ten and bounced back from a narrow loss to Indiana by also defeating Illinois, with that game occurring on Tuesday. 

The SportsLine Projection Model entered Week 15 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season. Now, after simulating Michigan State vs. Wisconsin 10,000 times, the model has issued its picks for Spartans vs. Badgers

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Michigan State vs. Wisconsin model picks for Feb. 13

Wisconsin +1.5

The SportsLine model is big on the Badgers here, as they cover as 1.5-point home underdogs in 60% of simulations, good for a 'B' grade. Wisconsin is 13-11 against the spread this year, while Michigan State is 12-11 ATS. The Badgers have also covered in each of their last three games. 

Wisconsin money line

The model thinks the Badgers are undervalued here at home, as they win outright in 56% of simulations at plus money, presenting plenty of value at their current odds. The Spartans dropped two in a row before Saturday's win over Illinois and are 4-2 on the road while the Badgers are 10-2 at home this season.

Over 144.5

The Badgers have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten while Michigan State's defense is arguably the best in the conference. Something's got to give Friday night, and the SportsLine model is backing the Over on 145.5, as that side of the total hits in more than 65% of simulations. Wisconsin is 14-10 to the Over while Michigan State is 9-15 to the Over this season.