Michigan vs. Iowa odds, picks: Hawkeyes can make a statement at home in Thursday's Big Ten battle
The SportsLine Projection Model has its predictions for when the No. 3 Wolverines visit the Hawkeyes on Thursday, March 5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are looking for a massive boost to their NCAA Tournament hopes on Thursday when they host the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten matchup. The Hawkeyes (20-9) are projected to make the NCAA field but face the Wolverines and No. 9 Nebraska to finish the regular season and don't want to rely on their conference tournament performance to get in. The Wolverines (27-2) have been one of the nation's most dominant teams all season and have clinched the Big Ten regular season title. UM closes the season at home against rival and eighth-ranked Michigan State on Sunday. Michigan has won 13 of its past 14 games, with the lone loss coming to current No. 1 Duke. Iowa has lost four of six, with the most recent setback a 71-69 loss to Penn State on Saturday.
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City. The Wolverines are 8.5-point road favorites in the latest Michigan vs. Iowa odds and are priced at -395 on the money line (wager $395 to win $100). The Hawkeyes are +308 underdogs (wager $100 to win $308), and the Over/Under for total points scored is set at 145.5.
With odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, we're revealing the best bets you can make for Michigan vs. Iowa. The SportsLine model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and entered Week 18 on a sizzling 11-1 run on top-ranked Over/Under college basketball picks dating to last year. It is also on a 23-17 run on top-rated CBB side picks, and anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Michigan vs. Iowa for March 5
Iowa +8.5
The Hawkeyes are 17-12 against the spread this season, while Michigan is 14-14 ATS and could have a minor issue with motivation. The Wolverines have clinched the Big Ten and while they are playing for NCAA seeding, they need to stay healthy. They don't need another problem after valuable reserve guard L.J. Cason went down with a torn ACL last Friday. The Wolverines have the talent and depth to win this, but the SportsLine model has Iowa covering the spread in 71% of its simulations.
Iowa money line
As mentioned, the Wolverines could be in a little bit of preservation mode, and the Hawkeyes are 14-2 at home and 3-7 on the road. Iowa also has the best defense in the Big Ten, allowing 65 points per game. It is 23rd in the nation in net rating and 34th in defensive rating at KenPom and while Michigan is second in both categories, Iowa could pull off the upset at home if coach Dusty May opts to rotate more than usual. The SportsLine model has the Hawkeyes winning in 47% of simulations, making them an excellent value play as significant plus-money underdogs.
Over 145.5
The Hawkeyes are 17-12 to the Over (9-8 O/U at home), and Michigan is 11-18 O/U. Seven of the past 10 meetings between the teams have gone Over, as have eight of the past nine matchups in Iowa City. The teams combine to score a 175 points per game but yield a combined 134, and this one should end up somewhere in the middle. The SportsLine model sees the total getting close to 160, so it gives a "B" grade to the Over.
