The Dodgers' newest big name will be on the marquee Tuesday night when Los Angeles visits Chicago to face the Cubs in the TBS game at 8:05 p.m. ET. Tarik Skubal is set to take the mound for his new team after being traded from the Tigers, and the left-handed star will be making the first start of his career at Wrigley Field. The Dodgers are looking to avoid a season-worst five-game losing streak after their 10-5 loss in the opener of the three-game series on Monday. The Cubs trail the MLB-best Brewers by 5.5 games in the NL Central, while L.A. has a nine-game lead over San Diego in the NL West.
The Dodgers are -192 road favorites in the latest MLB odds, with Chicago a +171 underdog, but the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is backing the Cubs. It gives an 'A' grade to Chicago on the money line, as they win in 51% of its simulations.
SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca disagrees, and before you make any wagers for Dodgers vs. Cubs on the top sports betting apps, you have to see what he has to say. You should also see our other expert picks before you do any MLB betting.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who is up 133.4 units dating back to the 2022 MLB season on straight bets, prop betting and parlay betting. Here's a look at his best bets for Dodgers vs. Cubs on Tuesday.
Dodgers vs. Cubs best bets
- Dodgers -1.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- First plate appearance strikeouts (0.5 unit each):
Dansby Swanson (+135, BetMGM)
Ian Happ (+115, BetMGM)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+150, BetMGM)
Michael Busch (+195, BetMGM)
Dodgers -1.5 (-120, BetMGM)
Cubs hitters have seen Skubal at least once for the most part, with a few guys in the middle and bottom of the order facing him for the first time, but the ballpark is unfamiliar, and so is the defense behind him. Javier Assad will work his second start in a row for the Cubs after a couple of relief outings to start the second half. He's been serviceable, but he's running an expected ERA almost a run higher than his actual at 4.58, and he's had some issues with hard contact, especially to lefties. He has a .330 wOBA allowed to that side of the split.
The Dodgers have some big lefty bats, as we all know, and Assad doesn't get many whiffs on any of his three main offerings to lefties, including a fastball thrown more than 30% of the time, with an xwOBA 70 points higher than the actual. The Dodgers have the better offense, the far superior starting pitcher, and will face a pitcher in Assad who has bounced from starter to reliever and is likely due for some regression. I'm backing L.A. to win by at least a couple of runs in what also makes for one of the best hitting environments of the day with the wind whipping out.
First plate appearance strikeouts
The thinking here is that Skubal probably goes about six innings and is done if everything goes according to plan. I would be surprised if they push him much further than the 18 outs mark, with the bullpen is well rested and this his first time pitching to a new catcher.
L.A. also knows it will need Skubal for the long haul, so the Under 18.5 outs looks like a solid play. Whether it's caution from the Dodgers in his first start that cuts things short or the Cubs working the count and giving the southpaw trouble, I won't be getting involved in the full game strikeout prop at 7.5.
The Cubs don't make for an easy strikeout matchup, with just three hitters in the projected lineup possessing a strikeout rate above 21% against lefties, so I'm going to pick on those guys with strikeout rates at 27% (Crow-Armstrong), 31% (Swanson) and 34% (Happ) when facing a southpaw. This isn't any old lefty, either. This is an elite strikeout arm with incredible upside every time he steps on the mound, so good luck if you're fading, but I'd rather back him in these matchups.
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I added Michael Busch as well even though his strikeout rate has improved this year by about 6% when facing off in a left-on-left matchup. He was worse than 26% last year, and Skubal has been dominant against left-handed batters, registering a near 33% strikeout rate and dazzling 17% swinging strike rate.
The pricing on these props should be better on FanDuel once lineups are confirmed, but until then, we have BetMGM as the option to get these down well in advance of the game. Take your pick if you want to tail now or wait to compare prices a bit later tonight. For what it's worth, the pricing on BetMGM usually doesn't shift enough throughout the day to make a big difference if you want to wait, as I generally do.
Worth noting: I mentioned that the weather and wind at Wrigley is going to make for some good hitting conditions, but many of the hits, runs and RBI lines are pushed up to a point where the price or line at 2.5 makes them tough to bet. Two Dodgers did stand out, though; Max Muncy (-125) and Kyle Tucker (-115), each with a reasonably priced Over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI line for being on the away team and facing a pitcher with of Assad's profile, as we mentioned earlier.
