NFL predictions: How Cowboys vs. Lions Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup impacts playoff picture

The Detroit Lions won five of their first seven games of the 2025 NFL season and appeared to be on their way to at least a third consecutive playoff appearance, and possibly a third straight NFC North title. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys recorded only three victories over their first nine contests and seemed destined to miss the postseason for the second year in a row.

Detroit (7-5) has had its issues since returning from its Week 8 bye and finds itself on the outside looking in, while Dallas (6-5-1) has reeled off three consecutive wins following its bye in Week 10 and suddenly is back in the NFC playoff picture. The Lions and Cowboys will be looking to remain in the hunt when they kick off Week 14 at Ford Field on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET.

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The Lions find themselves in third place in the NFC North and eighth in the conference after dropping a 31-24 decision to the Green Bay Packers last week. Detroit is 1 1/2 games behind Green Bay and trails the first-place Chicago Bears by two with five contests remaining on the schedule.

Thanks to their current surge and back-to-back losses by Philadelphia, the Cowboys are within 1 1/2 games of the NFC East-leading Eagles. Dallas trounced the Las Vegas Raiders 33-16 in its return from its bye and posted an astounding 24-21 comeback victory against Philadelphia in Week 12 after falling behind by 21 points. The Cowboys then upset the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving Day.

The Cowboys enter Thursday's showdown just one-half game behind the Lions in the NFC and will be facing what could be a severely limited Detroit aerial attack. Already missing tight end Sam LaPorta (back) for what may be the rest of the season, the Lions will be without Kalif Raymond (ankle) for a second straight week, and fellow wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as questionable due to the ankle injury he suffered against the Packers last week.

Conversely, Dallas' passing game is firing on all cylinders. Dak Prescott, who is second in the NFL in both passing yards (3,261) and touchdown tosses (25), has posted back-to-back 300-yard performances and has made eight TD throws against just two interceptions during the Cowboys' current winning streak.

Offseason acquisition George Pickens is second in the league with 1,142 receiving yards and third with eight touchdown catches, while CeeDee Lamb has hauled in a scoring pass in two of his last three contests. Meanwhile, tight end Jake Ferguson has seven TD receptions this year after registering the same amount in 47 games over his first three NFL seasons.

Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the Cowboys have the league's top passing offense with an average of 271.3 yards per game. Dallas also is first in the NFL in total offense (393.1 yards) and ranks second in scoring (29.3 points).

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Even if they are thin on receivers, the Lions still have enough pieces to compete with the Cowboys. Jahmyr Gibbs is the NFL's fourth-leading rusher with 1,019 yards and is tied for third in the league with 13 total touchdowns - including 10 on the ground. Veteran David Montgomery also is a threat, as he has six TD runs, and Jared Goff is even with Prescott in scoring passes with 25.

Detroit is third in the NFL in both total offense (376.3 yards) and scoring (29.2 points) while ranking fourth in rushing with an average of 138.1 yards. The club is seventh in passing offense (238.2 yards), but the potential absence of St. Brown - who is fifth in league with 884 receiving yards and second with nine TD catches - would be a major blow.

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team feels both teams must win in order to seriously keep alive their playoff hopes. According to the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, a loss would drop Detroit's postseason chances under 19%, while Dallas' prospects would sink below 10%.

The Lions have a much more difficult road ahead of them, as they have matchups against the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams (9-3), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) and Bears (9-3) on their schedule following their meeting with Dallas. The Cowboys will face just one team with a winning record - the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers - over their final four contests, as they have meetings with the Minnesota Vikings (4-8), Washington Commanders (3-9) and New York Giants (2-11) ahead of them.

Chicago and Green Bay both have tough battles remaining. In addition to facing each other twice, the Bears also take on the San Francisco 49ers (9-4) and Lions while the Packers square off against the AFC West-best Denver Broncos (10-2)  and AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens (6-6). However, the model still gives Detroit just an 11% chance to win the NFC North with a victory over Dallas.

As for the Cowboys, their outlook for overtaking the Eagles in the NFC East is bleak. Philadelphia has showdowns with the Chargers and Buffalo Bills (8-4) on its slate, but it also faces Washington twice and Las Vegas. Even with a triumph on Thursday night, the model says Dallas' chances to win the division are less than 23%.

The Cowboys are 17-12 against the Lions in the regular season and won five consecutive meetings prior to last year, when Detroit cruised to a 47-9 victory at Dallas in Week 6. Montgomery ran for a pair of touchdowns and Goff threw for 315 yards and three TDs - including one to Jameson Williams, who has hauled in a scoring pass in four of his last five games and is coming off a performance against Green Bay in which he recorded a career-high 144 receiving yards. The 24-year-old figures to be Goff's top target Thursday night if St. Brown is unable to play.

Detroit is a 3-point favorite against Dallas in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is projecting a 29-26 victory for the Lions, which would seriously dampen the Cowboys' postseason hopes.