steelers.jpg
Imagn Images

Favorites went 7-9 against the spread in NFL Week 18, and six of the teams that covered were more than a touchdown favorite. Only one team failed to cover as a double-digit favorite, with the Houston Texans pulling some starters late in a 38-30 victory against the Indianapolis Colts as a 10.5-point favorite. Two playoff teams lost outright as favorites, with the Bears falling to the Lions but retaining the NFC's No. 2 playoff seed when the Eagles rested starters and were upset by the Lions (+3). The Ravens lost to underdog Pittsburgh (+3.5), missing out on a playoff spot on a missed field goal to end the game. The Bengals, Chiefs and Cowboys also lost as favorites.

There is only one NFL game on Super Wild Card Weekend with a spread of more than 4.5 points, and that is the Saturday Rams vs. Panthers matchup. Los Angeles (12-5) is a 10.5-point favorite when it visits Carolina (8-9), which won the NFC South despite a losing record. The Bears, Jaguars and Steelers are also division champions who are home underdogs on NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. Chicago is a 1.5-point underdog against the Packers, the Buffalo Bills are favored by 1 point at Jacksonville and Pittsburgh is a 3-point underdog at home against the Texans. The Patriots and Eagles are home favorites, with New England -3.5 against the Chargers and Philadelphia favored by 4.5 against the 49ers.   

With so many fairly tight spreads and teams coming off a frenetic NFL Week 18, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say about the best spread picks you should make on Super Wild Card Weekend. The model picks every NFL game each week, and it enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.

Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks at DraftKings Sportsbook for NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.

Best spread picks for Wild Card Weekend

Steelers +3 vs. Texans

Back Pittsburgh against the spread at DraftKings:

It hasn't been pretty, but the Steelers have won four of their past five games, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 294 yards in the victory against the Ravens on Sunday night. The four-time league MVP has plenty of playoff experience and will be looking to shine at home in the Monday night spotlight. The Texans defense is tough, but their offense isn't exactly a juggernaut, and the Pittsburgh defense should improve with T.J. Watt back from injury. The SportsLine model has Pittsburgh covering the spread in 59% of its simulations.

Bears +1.5 vs. Packers

Bet on the Bears to cover at DraftKings:

As the oddsmakers have shown, this one is pretty much a toss-up, with the Bears opening as favorites at some books. The Packers will be getting quarterback Jordan Love back, and he led Green Bay to a victory in the one game he played against Chicago this season. But the Packers needed an interception in the end zone to seal that one, and Chicago won the return matchup at home. This one is at Soldier Field too, and the SportsLine model has the Bears covering the spread in 56% of its simulations and winning outright 53% of the time. It gives the spread pick an "A" rating.

Patriots -3.5 vs. Chargers

Take the Patriots at DraftKings:

The Chargers have lost their past two games, and while Justin Herbert sat out Week 18, the defense hasn't been great lately. L.A. also doesn't have many notable victories. The Chargers yielded 362 yards to Houston in Week 17. Now they face MVP favorite Drake Maye, who has at least 250 passing yards in eight of the past 10 games. The Pats averaged almost 31 points while winning 13 of their final 14 regular-season games. The Chargers averaged 21.6 (21st in the NFL) in the regular season, while the Pats allowed less than 19 (eighth). The SportsLine model has New England covering the spread in 54% of its simulations.