NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Dolphins vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football from proven model

A stretch during which they lost five of seven games put the Pittsburgh Steelers in danger of falling out of first place in the AFC North. But Mike Tomlin's club withstood a late comeback attempt by the Baltimore Ravens last week to post a 27-22 road victory and remain atop the division. 

The Steelers attempt to strengthen their hold on first place in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season when they host the streaking Miami Dolphins at Acrisure Stadium on Monday Night Football.

It appeared as if Pittsburgh (7-6) would run away and capture its first division title since 2020 as it won four of its first five games and owned a 2 1/2-game lead after Week 6. That advantage was aided by a 2-4 start by the Cincinnati Bengals, who lost quarterback Joe Burrow for more than two months to a toe injury in Week 2, and 1-5 beginnings by both the Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

However, the Steelers won only two of their following six contests, while Baltimore reeled off five consecutive victories to pull even with Pittsburgh in the standings at 6-5. The teams remained tied as both lost in Week 13, and the Steelers owned an 11-point lead after three quarters in their showdown last Sunday and held on for the win to move one game ahead of the Ravens with four remaining.

Wideout DK Metcalf had his best performance since being acquired by Pittsburgh last March after spending the first six years of his NFL career with the Seattle Seahawks, hauling in seven passes for 148 yards. But the Steelers' 29th-ranked ground attack (89.2 yards) produced only 34 yards while their defense allowed Baltimore to rush for 217.

Pittsburgh is 21st in the league against the run (125.3 yards allowed) but even worse defending the pass, as it ranks 28th with an average of 244 yards allowed through the air. The club also is 28th in total defense (369.3 yards allowed) but sixth with 36 sacks. The Steelers could have trouble recording one against Miami as three-time NFL sack leader T.J. Watt, who is first on the team this year with seven, was hospitalized Wednesday because of a lung issue and could miss Monday's contest.

The Dolphins (6-7) were left for dead after losing six of their first seven games this season but have come out of nowhere to ever so slightly get back into the playoff picture. They have won four straight contests and five of their last six, although four of those victories came against teams with records of 4-9 or worse.

Miami is one of the better rushing clubs in the league, as it ranks eighth with an average of 126.5 yards per game. The ground assault is led by De'Von Achane, who is third in the NFL with a career-high 1,126 yards. The 24-year-old posted three consecutive 100-yard performances and was on his way to a fourth straight last week as he gained 92 yards before leaving in the second quarter of a 34-10 rout of the New York Jets with a rib injury.

Achane is questionable for the matchup against the Steelers, but the Dolphins historically don't perform well in cold weather. The high temperature in Pittsburgh for Monday is 20 degrees Fahrenheit, and it certainly will be below that at game time. 

The weather is of no concern to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team, which doesn't foresee Miami qualifying for the postseason regardless of the outcome of Monday night's contest. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, currently gives the Dolphins a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs and puts that number at 0.3% should they defeat the Steelers.

Meanwhile, the model strongly believes the Steelers will make their third consecutive postseason appearance and fifth in six years. It puts Pittsburgh's chances at more than 73% and increases them to just over 79% with a victory on Monday. However, with the Steelers trailing four teams - including the three that occupy wild card berths - by at least one game, the model feels their best method of going to the playoffs is winning a division title.

Pittsburgh follows its Monday night matchup with road games against the Detroit Lions and Browns before ending the regular season at home versus Baltimore. The Ravens visit Cincinnati this Sunday, face the AFC East-leading New England Patriots in their home finale a week later and visit the Green Bay Packers before what could be a crucial showdown in the "Steel City."

The Steelers lost their last meeting with the Dolphins, a 16-10 setback at Miami in 2022, but have won the last two matchups between the teams in Pittsburgh - including their clash in the 2016 wild card round. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite against Miami on Monday in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is projecting a 26-19 victory for the Steelers, which would move them one step closer to the 25th division title in franchise history.