NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Giants vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football from proven model

The New England Patriots and New York Giants both will have their eye on a prize when they meet in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. on Monday Night Football. However, the clubs are looking to obtain very different prizes.

New England (10-2) has a few rewards in its sights, such as its first AFC East title since 2019 and the top overall seed in the conference come playoff time. The Patriots enter Week 13 with a 2.5-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, who have captured the division crown each of the last five seasons, and are a half game ahead of the Denver Broncos (9-2) for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Mike Vrabel's tenure as head coach of the team with which he won three Super Bowls as a player got off to a rocky start as New England lost two of its first three games this year. However, the Patriots haven't been defeated since, as they enter Monday night's matchup with the Giants having won nine consecutive contests.

The Patriots have scored at least 23 points in every game during their winning streak and have won four straight at home by a combined total of 62 points. They now host a Giants squad that has lost six consecutive contests and leads the NFL with five setbacks this season in which it owned a lead in the fourth quarter.

New York (2-10) became the first team to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with last week's 34-27 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions. The Giants possess the worst record in the NFC and are very much alive in the running for the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, as only the Tennessee Titans (1-10) are below them in the league standings.

New England has been strong on both sides of the ball this year, ranking eighth in both total offense (359.9 yards) and defense (301.2 yards allowed). The Patriots are sixth in the league in passing (247.5 yards) and seventh in scoring (26.5 points), while they are the second-best team against the run (87.7 yards allowed) and sixth in points allowed (18.8).

Drafted third overall in 2024, Drake Maye leads the NFL with 3,130 passing yards and ranks fourth with 21 touchdown tosses. The 23-year-old should come up with a solid performance against the Giants, who are last in the league against the run (157.2 yards allowed), 30th in both total defense (385.0) and points allowed (27.8) and 23rd against the pass (227.8 yards allowed).

SportsLine's Inside the Lines team currently doesn't see how the Patriots don't put an end to their three-year postseason drought, and it says a loss to New York won't do much to reduce their chances.

According to the ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, New England also is an overwhelming favorite to end Buffalo's five-year reign atop the AFC East regardless of the result of Monday night's contest.

The Giants have owned the first overall draft pick twice in their history. They most recently had the distinction in 1965, when they selected Auburn running back Tucker Frederickson ahead of future Hall-of-Famers Dick Butkus, Gale Sayers, Joe Namath and Fred Biletnikoff.

Entering Week 13, the ITL team's model gives New York just the seventh-best chance to secure the No. 1 pick in 2026, as it projects the club to post 4.4 victories this season.

Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who missed the Giants' previous two games, has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start against the Patriots on Monday Night Football. New England is a 7.5-point favorite against New York in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is projecting a 28-19 victory for the Patriots, which would move them one step closer to their 22nd AFC East title and the 23rd division crown in franchise history.