NFL predictions: Rams, Eagles, Bucs among best spread picks for Week 11
Here's a look at our five best spread bets for Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season
Division matchups are the story in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, with nine of the 15 games on the slate featuring division opponents. After nailing spread picks for the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks in Week 10, we're dishing five more spread picks for Week 11 with two matchups coming between division rivals.
Best spread picks for NFL Week 11
Bucs +5.5 vs. Bills
The Bucs are coming off a tough loss to the Patriots and will now meet the Bills, who are entering Week 11 trying to right the ship after getting blasted by the Dolphins. Buffalo has been excellent at home this season with a 4-1 mark, but Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the road despite dealing with plenty of injuries offensively. Even though Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin aren't expected to play, the Buccaneers have found a way to keep their offense going around Baker Mayfield. Buffalo is 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite, and the SportsLine Projection Model has Tampa Bay covering in 51% of simulations.
Packers -7 vs. Giants
Green Bay continues to play to the level of its opponent, which means the Packers are likely going to have a tough time dealing with the Giants. Jaxson Dart is dealing with a concussion and New York would reportedly turn to Jameis Winston should Dart fail to clear concussion protocols in time to play, which means Green Bay's opportunistic defense has the chance to create turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball, Matt LaFleur is facing questions amidst Green Bay's struggles. This is the perfect game for the Packers to put all the concerns to bed. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Packers covering in 52% of simulations.
Rams -2.5 vs. Seahawks
This is arguably the biggest matchup of the Week 11 slate. These two teams are looking like Super Bowl contenders, and this game will go a long way towards determining not just who wins the NFC West, but who could end up with the No. 1 seed. Sam Darnold has continued to play well after his strong 2024 season in Minnesota, but Matthew Stafford is the MVP frontrunner right now. Even if Davante Adams is limited, Stafford has shown he can make it work with lesser weapons as he's thrown 13 touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three games. Back the home side here, even though the SportsLine model likes Seattle to cover in 51% of simulations at +3 consensus odds.
Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers
Quite frankly, the Panthers embarrassed the Falcons last time around. Carolina picked off Michael Penix Jr. twice, returning one for a score in a 30-0 drubbing. Atlanta is at home this time around and is trying to halt a four-game losing streak. The Falcons need this win to keep their season alive, and the Panthers were not as dominant as the scoreline would suggest in the last game. I like Atlanta to turn the tide in this rematch and the SportsLine model agrees, with the Falcons covering in 54% of simulations.
Eagles -2.5 vs. Lions
Philadelphia's offense has been in a funk at times this season, but the Eagles have found ways to win. The Lions have fired up their offense again but do have the propensity to lay some clunkers away from home in cold weather. The Eagles have the defensive chops to slow down Detroit, and even if this does trend to a shootout, Philadelphia's offense seems due for a strong game after struggling in primetime in Week 10. The Lions cover in 53% of SportsLine model simulations, but I'll take the home side here.
