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The Montreal Canadiens finally went against their 2026 NHL Playoffs reputation by following a victory with another victory, and it was another dominant one against the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday. They will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead with a victory in Buffalo in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals series on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks rebounded from a big loss to the Vegas Golden Knights with a gritty 4-3 victory on Sunday to tie the series 2-2. They face off again in Game 5 on Tuesday in Las Vegas.

Montreal is a -140 money-line favorite at home Tuesday, and the Over/Under for total goals is 6.5. Vegas is a -153 home favorite and the total is also set at 6.5 in the latest NHL Playoffs odds. 

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has locked in its NHL picks and best bets for Sabres vs. Canadiens and Ducks vs. Golden Knights on Tuesday night. The model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NHL playoffs with a +668 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks. Anyone following its NHL betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.   

Both games Tuesday offer plenty of NHL betting opportunities. They include spread betting, Over/Under bets, money line betting and player prop betting. Bettors can also combine multiple picks into a parlay bet for Tuesday's games.

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NHL Playoffs picks for Tuesday, May 12

  • Sabres +1.5
  • Sabres vs. Canadiens Over 6.5
  • Golden Knights to win vs. Ducks

Sabres +1.5

Both the Sabres to win at plus-money on the money line and Sabres +1.5 earn 'B' grades from the SportsLine model, with Buffalo winning 47% of the time and covering the puck line at a 77% clip. The spread play seems to be the safer bet given how Montreal has played the past two games, but with the heavy juice, it might need to be folded into a parlay. 

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Sabres vs. Canadiens Over 6.5

The Over is hitting in 48% of the simulations, but the model sees value on the play at plus-money. The Canadiens' offense has really come to life the past two games, and forwards Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky both broke out of slumps with goals in Game 3. Montreal has scored 11 goals over the past two games. Jakub Dobes has been outstanding in net for Montreal, but the same can't be said for Buffalo's Alex Lyon, at least in the past two games. Both teams are 6-3 to the Over in the playoffs.     

Golden Knights to win

Game 4 was about as even as it gets statistically, with the only noticeable difference being Anaheim's two power-play goals to one for Vegas. The teams split the first two games at T-Mobile Arena, but the Golden Knights were 20-12-9 at home in the regular season and are 7-2-0 in their past nine game there. The Ducks were 19-20-2 on the road entering the playoffs and are 3-6-0 in their past nine away games. The SportsLine model has Vegas winning in 64% of its simulations for a 'B' grade.   

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