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The Vegas Golden Knights have a chance to close out their series with the Anaheim Ducks, while the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are at a critical juncture in the 2026 NHL Playoffs on Thursday. The Golden Knights took a 3-2 overtime victory against the Ducks on Tuesday to take a 3-2 series lead. That puts the Golden Knights on the brink of the Western Conference Final, where they would face the Colorado Avalanche. The Sabres also won 3-2, but in regulation, to tie their Eastern Conference second-round series with the Canadiens, so Game 5 is a pivotal one and Buffalo will be on home ice.

The Sabres are -121 money line favorites at home on Thursday, with Montreal +100 underdogs on the money line, and the Over/Under for total goals is 5.5. Vegas is a slight road favorite. priced at -113 on the money line, just shorter than the Ducks at -107, and the total is set at 6.5 goals in the latest NHL Playoffs odds. 

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, has locked in its NHL picks and best bets for Canadiens vs. Sabres and Golden Knights vs. Ducks on Thursday night. The model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NHL playoffs with a +668 return on top-rated money-line NHL picks. Anyone following its NHL betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.   

Both games Thursday offer plenty of NHL betting opportunities. They include spread betting, Over/Under bets, money line betting and player prop betting. Bettors can also combine multiple picks into a parlay bet for Thursday's games.

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NHL Playoffs picks for Thursday, May 14

  • Canadiens +1.5 vs. Sabres
  • Ducks +1.5 vs. Golden Knights
  • Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over 6.5 goals

Canadiens +1.5

Game 4 was a tight one, with Montreal holding the edge in several areas but the Sabres doing a great job of protecting their goaltender, and a fluky Buffalo goal was a difference-maker. The issue in net for the Sabres, with Alex Lyon being replaced by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and the Canadiens had a 30-23 edge in shots Tuesday. However, they scored only once on seven power plays and Buffalo blocked 27 shots in front of Luukkonen. The SportsLine model has Montreal covering the puck line in 69% of simulations for a 'B' grade.

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Ducks +1.5

The model has Anaheim winning in 52% of simulations and covering in 75% of its simulations, but the heavy juice should make this a parlay pick for most bettors. The Ducks are 23-23 against the spread at home this season. Bennett Sennecke scored his team-high fifth goal in Tuesday's loss, and the Ducks have eight other players with at least two goals in this postseason. Anaheim went 24-13-4 at home during the regular season and have won four of five in the playoffs at Honda Center. Two of Vegas' four losses have come on the road.

Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over 6.5 goals

This is just a lean from the model with Over 6.5 goals hitting in 48.9% of simulations, with the plus-money odds making it a value play. The total has gone Over in four of Anaheim's past five home games against Vegas, while the Golden Knights have seen their games go Over in four of their past five away from home. Vegas has scored at least five goals in four of its past eight games, and the past two meetings of this series in Anaheim have totaled eight and seven goals.   

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