Oregon vs. Indiana betting odds, best bets, predictions for College Football Playoff semifinal
Here are our top picks and best bets for the CFP semifinal showdown between Oregon and Indiana in Friday's Peach Bowl
The Indiana Hoosiers aren't planning to slow down in this historic season, and they can take the next step Friday night when they face the Oregon Ducks in the second College Football Playoff Semifinal in the Peach Bowl. The winner will head to Miami's Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Hurricanes in the National Championship Game on Jan. 19. Miami won a 31-27 thriller with Ole Miss in Thursday night's Fiesta Bowl. Both teams come in off impressive performances in the quarterfinals, with the top-seeded Hoosiers (14-0) dominating Alabama in a 38-3 victory on New Year's Day. The Ducks (13-1) shut out Texas Tech 23-0 after beating James Madison 51-34 in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Indiana has won the past two meetings between the teams, including a 30-20 victory in Eugene in October that kick-started Indiana's storybook season under coach Curt Cignetti. It was the only loss for Oregon, and both teams beat three teams that were ranked at the time during the regular season.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Hoosiers are 3.5-point favorites in the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points is 48.5. Indiana is a -185 favorite on the money line (wager $185 to win $100), while the Ducks are +154 underdogs (wager $100 to win $154). Here are our best bets for this CFP semifinal round matchup, with predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times.
Oregon +3.5
At some point, the stage might just get too big for the Hoosiers, right? Maybe. But Oregon has been here before, losing to Ohio State in the 2014 title game and again to the eventual champion Buckeyes in the quarterfinals last season as the No. 1 seed. In Dante Moore, Oregon has a quarterback who can match up with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza of Indiana. The Ducks will come in confident after scoring 71 points in the first two playoff games. The SportsLine model has the Ducks winning in 45% of its simulations, and they are covering in 56% of the time.
Under 48.5
Indiana is averaging 41.6 points per game (third in FBS), while Oregon scores an average of 38 (ninth), but these teams can stop opponents too, with both ranked in the top six in scoring defense. Indiana is second in FBS in allowing 10.3 points per game, while Oregon ranks sixth, yielding 15.1. Oregon shut out a potent Texas Tech team in the quarterfinals, while IU gave up only a field goal to Alabama. The teams also could come out tentative on offense but should be fired up on the other side of the ball early on in such a huge game. The Under is hitting in 59% of simulations.
Oregon money line
As noted, the Ducks have been on this stage several times, and while these are totally different teams, the institutional expectations could matter. The Ducks have played in one CFP title game and lost in another in the BCS era. They'll be out to atone for last year's misstep as the top seed, and while the SportsLine model has Indiana winning the majority of the time, Oregon has value on the money line. The Ducks are winning in 45% of the simulations, offering value in relation to the implied odds.
