Patriots vs. Texans picks: Drake Maye, C.J. Stroud NFL player props for Divisional Round matchup
With two of the best defenses meeting in the divisional round, which quarterback props should you back for New England vs. Houston?
Two of the NFL's best defenses will take the field on Sunday when the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Houston allowed the second fewest points per game in the regular season (17.4) and held the Steelers to just six points in the Wild Card Round, while New England gave up only 18.8 ppg in the regular season and held the Chargers to three last weekend.
It should be a stifling environment for quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye, to say the least. Stroud will also be without top wideout Nico Collins with the star receiver in concussion protocol, while Maye is playing in his first postseason. With so much stacked against them, which signal-caller looks like the better pick for NFL player prop betting at DraftKings?
We've looked at prop projections from the SportsLine Projection Model to break down how the quarterbacks stack up. For a full game forecast for Patriots vs. Texans and more NFL player prop recommendations, head over to SportsLine.
Passing yards props
Drake Maye: 219.5 (Over -112, Under -112)
C.J. Stroud: 207.5 (Over -114, Under -110)
Top pick: Drake Maye Over 219.5 passing yards (4 stars)
Houston's secondary is notoriously oppressive, with Derek Stingley Jr. frequently eliminating half the field for opposing quarterbacks. That doesn't seem to deter the SportsLine model, which forecasts a healthy 264.6 passing yards for Maye. While Stefon Diggs will likely have to spend most of the afternoon dueling with Stingley, Kayshon Boutte and Hunter Henry (among others) should be more available for Maye to target. If the Patriots are going to win this game, Maye will be a big reason why.
Passing attempts props
Drake Maye: 29.5 (Over -116, Under -110)
C.J. Stroud 31.5 (Over -113, Under -113)
Top pick: C.J. Stroud Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (3 stars)
This makes sense, as with Collins sidelined, Stroud loses his one truly dangerous passing option. He can dump the ball off to players like Dalton Schultz, but there's little reason to bomb the ball downfield without Collins. Buffalo is also notable vulnerable on the ground, meaning that Houston could focus on playing the field position game and then force-feed Woody Marks. That being said, the model doesn't have a strong lean here, as it projects 30.8 passing attempts for Stroud.
Passing TD props
Drake Maye: 1.5 (Over +120, Under -153)
C.J. Stroud: 1.5 (Over +150, Under -193)
Top pick: Drake Maye Over 1.5 TD passes (4 stars)
This is Maye's biggest test of the season given New England's light schedule, and the model expects him to have a good showing at home. It projects 1.7 passing touchdowns for the second-year QB. Houston has one of the better red zone defenses in the NFL, but this isn't a game that will be won with only field goals, and if we think New England is going to win, this pick fits the narrative we've established.
