Real Madrid vs. Manchester City prediction: Expert reveals picks for Champions League Round of 16 first leg
SportsLine soccer expert Jon Eimer makes his best bets for Real Madrid vs. Manchester City in the Champions League Round of 16 first leg
It wouldn't be a Champions League tournament without Real Madrid playing Manchester City in the knockout stages. These two storied clubs have met six times in a Champions League knockout stage since 2015-16 and are incredibly familiar with each other in this competition. The Spanish giants have the 4-2 edge over Pep Guardiola's Premier League side, winning the most recent knockout tie 6-3 on aggregate in last year's playoffs.
Kickoff from the Bernabeu in Madrid is set for 4 p.m. ET. You can catch Real Madrid vs. Man City and all Champions League games live on Paramount+. Manchester City are +100 favorites (wager $100 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Real Madrid vs. Manchester City odds, while the hosts are +240 underdogs (wager $100 to win $240). A draw is priced at +285 and the total is 2.5 (Over -170, Under +135). The SportsLine Projection Model has the results for its latest simulations of Real Madrid vs. Man City and all Champions League matches here, but you should see what SportsLine soccer expert Jon Eimer is locking in for his best bets of the match.
Eimer finished 2023 as SportsLine's No. 1 soccer expert, posting a 248-234-12 record (+25.93 units) on SportsLine article picks. Eimer has been red-hot in 2025, posting a profit in multiple leagues, including the Premier League, Champions League, La Liga and more. Anyone following his soccer betting picks could have seen huge returns at sportsbooks and on betting apps.
Here are Eimer's best bets and analysis for Real Madrid vs. Manchester City on Wednesday, March 11.
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City best bets
- Manchester City Over 1.5 goals Team Total (-125): 1 unit
- Antonie Semenyo to Score or Assist (+110): 1 unit
- Manchester City to Score in First 15 Minutes (+320): 0.5 units
Real Madrid's big injuries
I've been saying this for weeks, and I'm going to say it again to start off this article. No Mbappe, No Mparty. This team is just not the same without the services of one of (if not the) best current player in the world, Kylian Mbappe. Real Madrid are scraping by and dropping points to teams nowhere near the caliber of Manchester City right now. They are missing their most dominating attacking threat, and they're also without Judge Bellingham.
Real Madrid's last four matches without these two saw them lose to Osasuna and Getafe, barely beat Celta Vigo and barely beat Benfica at home. If this squad was fully fit, I'd back them but I'm not going to put my money on Real Madrid to do much, even at home, in UCL right now.
Manchester City's statement match
Manchester City have a lot of experience playing against Los Blancos, and seem to draw them every year in Champions League play. These teams have played each other five times since 2024, all in the Champions League. First and foremost, all five of those matches saw BTTS hit. We saw a 3-3 draw, a 1-1 draw, a 3-2 win for Real Madrid, a 3-1 win for Real Madrid, and most recently a 2-1 win for Manchester City. I believe we can once again expect goals. I also know Manchester are smart enough to smell the blood in the water, and that they have to push for a first leg lead, even on the road, with Real Madrid's injuries.
Pep Guardiola knows that there's a good chance the EPL title will go to Arsenal, which means the goal would shift to winning the UCL trophy. This team will press, and with players like Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo firing on all cylinders and gelling with this squad, this is a team that might score three goals.
