SMU vs. Florida State odds, picks, prediction, betting preview, start time for Week 1 college football

While many teams around the country will kick off their 2026 college football journeys in Week 1, the Florida State Seminoles are trying to move to 2-0 when they host the SMU Mustangs. The Seminoles beat New Mexico State 34-17 in a Week 0 clash at home, and they now host the Mustangs in Tallahassee in the lone game of the day on Monday, Sept. 7. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Bet on SMU vs. Florida State and more college football games with the FanDuel promo code to receive bonus bets:

SMU is a 3.5-point favorite on the road, per the latest FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 53.5. The Seminoles are in the midst of a pivotal season that will have a major impact on the future of the program, while the Mustangs are trying to get back into the CFP conversation in 2026. 

If you're interested in betting on college football games such as SMU vs. Florida State at the best betting apps, check out our picks for this matchup as well as what SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model have to say. 

SMU vs. Florida State betting odds (via FanDuel)

SMU vs. Florida State betting preview

Florida State looked like a team to be reckoned with early in 2025 when the 'Noles knocked off Alabama, but they wound up finishing 5-7 and missing out on a bowl game for the second year in a row. There may not be a single seat that's hotter in the country than Mike Norvell's in Tallahassee. After going 8-13 over his first two seasons at FSU, Norvell won 10 games in 2022 and 13 in 2023. But things have hit a roadblock for the Seminoles with a 2-10 season in 2024 and just five wins a year ago. This is the start of a really tough stretch for Florida State as Norvell's squad faces SMU, Alabama, Virginia, Louisville, Miami and Clemson as six of its next seven games. 

The Seminoles knocked off New Mexico State 34-17 last week, though there are some things that need to get cleaned up. FSU was solid against the run, but NMSU passed for 272 yards and two scores. The Seminoles' run game was working well, with Ousmane Kromah rushing for over 100 yards while three other players, including quarterback Ashton Daniels, had over 30 yards each on the ground. 

The Mustangs are road sports betting favorites here, and it's easy to see why. Not only are the Seminoles coming off just seven total wins over the last two years, but Rhett Lashlee has SMU in a good spot right now. The Mustangs won nine games last year and had 11 wins each in 2023 and 2024, the latter of which resulted in a College Football Playoff appearance. Kevin Jennings is back for his third year as SMU's starting quarterback, and he has a veteran offensive line in front of him as well. The Mustangs aren't being talked about like a CFP contender, but they have a strong claim for being the No. 2 team in the ACC behind Miami this season. Use the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get bonus bets when wagering on SMU-Florida State and more college football games:

SMU vs. Florida State picks, prediction

SMU -3.5

Norvell's time in Tallahassee has been a strange one, with two poor years followed by two excellent ones followed by two dreadful ones. This is absolutely a make-or-break season for the Seminoles, but it's hard to see things going right for this squad, starting on Monday. 

The Mustangs have been excellent with 31 wins over the last three years, and having a dynamic quarterback like Jennings under center is a big deal, especially considering he's entering his third year as SMU's starter. This is a Mustangs squad that finished 26th nationally in points scored and 33rd in points allowed last year. Lashlee has a good thing going here, and while it may be strange to say, but SMU appears to be the more talented bunch. 

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You know things are strange in Tallahassee when SMU is the money line betting favorite on the road. But the Mustangs have key starters back across the board, and it's worth noting three of their four losses last year were by one score. I wasn't super impressed with the Noles' performance against NMSU last week, and this is the start of an absolutely brutal stretch of games. I think SMU is going to contend for an ACC title this year, and kicking things off with a win at Florida State is expected. I think Lashlee's group will not just win outright, but cover the spread betting line of 10.5. SMU covered this line in all nine of its wins last year.