Struggling Auburn's NCAA Tournament bid odds already long, at-large hopes would likely end with loss vs. LSU
Will Auburn miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021? I break down the odds with the Tigers hosting LSU on Tuesday.
Auburn has reached four straight NCAA Tournaments and got as far as the Final Four last year. But all that success was under former coach Bruce Pearl. Things aren't going so well under his son Stephen, who took over on the sideline. The Tigers are on the wrong side of the bubble and it would likely pop for good with an upset home loss Tuesday in SEC play vs. LSU, but Auburn is -8.5 for the 10 ET tip.
Just so I don't completely ignore the other Tigers: Short of a nearly impossible run to the SEC title, LSU has no shot at an NCAA Tournament bid sitting 15-14 overall and 3-13 in the league. It is Exhibit A of why you should often ignore non-conference records for power conference schools because they schedule so many cupcakes. The Bayou Bengals entered SEC play at 12-1, but that one loss was by 24 points to Texas Tech, the only ranked team they faced.
So maybe we should have seen LSU's lack of success in the league coming. Although to be fair, top guard Dedan Thomas, who leads the club in assists (6.8 per game) and is second in scoring (15.3 per). has not played since Jan. 28 due to a foot injury that eventually required season-ending surgery.
This will mark LSU's fourth straight season without a bid and perhaps three of four with a losing record under head coach Matt McMahon. It doesn't seem likely he will be back next season.
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Auburn (15-14, 12-17 ATS), has skidded to the wrong side of the bubble, having dropped seven of eight. It was frankly embarrassed at home Saturday by Ole Miss, which is a bad team that had dropped 10 in a row and was an 11-point underdog. The Rebs had also dropped 10 straight in the series. It was a crushing loss.
"Really disappointed. I want to apologize to our fans, They deserve better from us. We've got to do better," Steven Pearl said postgame.
Usual starting center KeShawn Murphy (10.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG) was not in the first five for disciplinary reasons. He would play 17 minutes and scored just two points. Ole Miss fared well the paint without him -- the Tigers' frontcourt combined for eight total points. Murphy should be back starting tonight.
CBS Sports bracketology lists the Tigers second in the First 4 Out, behind Cal and ahead of San Diego State and Seton Hall. The SportsLine Projection Model says the same and Auburn stays there regardless of Tuesday's result â I don't agree whatsoever if Auburn loses. I think that would end any at-large Dances chances, and this team isn't winning the SEC Tournament, either -- the model gives it just a 0.007% shot.
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The team's current NET ranking is 38, which improves to 37 with a win and falls to 41 with a loss, per the model. The Tigers do have five Quad 1 wins and have played by some metrics the nation's toughest schedule.
Finally, the model gives Auburn a 37.9% shot at getting to the Dance that rises to 40.2% with a win and drops to 31.1% with a loss. DraftKings gives a price of +210 for Yes (equates to 32.3%) and -280 for No. With a likely loss in the regular-season finale at No. 17 Alabama on Saturday, I recommend No (an upset would change things). That said, I don't expect a defeat tonight â as long as Auburn isn't trailing fairly late. It is 0-13 this season when trailing with five minutes left.
Some good SEC guards have been torching the Tigers of late and LSU has a good one in Max Mackinnon. He's the leading scorer, averaging 17.8 points in SEC play and shooting 40.4% from 3-point range this season. Two of LSU's three SEC wins have come in overtime road games, at South Carolina and Ole Miss.
It's the only scheduled meeting of the season between the schools, and Auburn has won the past four in the series. The SportsLine Projection Model has it Auburn 83, LSU 76. I don't have a huge opinion but will use Auburn's money line on Senior Night as part of my SportsLine newsletter Parlay of the Day -- sign up for that here -- as it's desperation time for the Tigers.
"We're still in control of our own destiny," Pearl said. "If you win these next two, you're probably in. We've got to do everything we can to beat LSU. Through all the difficulty and all the struggles, we're still in position to make the tournament."
