UFC 324 odds, picks: Combat analyst targeting pair of underdogs for Paramount+ debut fight card

The UFC makes its Paramount+ debut on Saturday from Las Vegas with a main card headlined by a lightweight interim title fight between former interim champion Justin Gaethje and No. 5-ranked Paddy Pimblett. The main card is set for 9 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and UFC now airs live on Paramount+.

The main event is seen as a potential legacy-defining moment for both fighters. The 37-year-old Gaethje (26-5) is one of the most popular combatants in the promotion's history, illustrated in part by his unmatched 100% bonus rate (14 bonuses in 14 UFC appearances) that shows he has never failed to deliver on the closed-cage violence that fans expect in return for their lofty admission fees. However, the former World Series of Fighting champion has never tasted gold in the UFC, coming up short on two prior opportunities, and Saturday's main event likely represents his final opportunity to reach the pinnacle of the sport.

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Pimblett (23-3) joined the UFC in September 2021 as a prized prospect and former champion in Cage Warriors, the same Europe-based promotion that produced iconic former two-division champion Conor McGregor. Pimblett started his UFC stint with three consecutive performance bonus-earning victories, but his sensitivity to criticism for subsequent performances and apparent lack of desire to face upper-tier competition saw his once-soaring popularity with fans take a sharp nosedive. However, the 31-year-old Englishman reversed course with dominant victories over veterans King Green and Michael Chandler to position himself for this interim title opportunity.

Pimblett is a -230 favorite (risk $230 to win $100), while Gaethje fetches a price of +190 in the latest MMA odds for UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett. We lean toward the younger and more versatile Pimblett, but the power-punching Gaethje can never be counted out, and the younger fighter is likely to face more resistance than he has seen in his previous matchups.

The UFC 324 main card remains a compelling lineup despite losing a women's title fight between Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison because of an injury to Harrison. Even so, it's a solid 2026 debut card (click here to see CBS MMA analyst Brian Campbell's top 324 storylines), and we like the underdog in a couple matchups. 

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UFC 324 underdog picks

Here are our underdog leans for the main card of UFC 324:  

Yadong Song (+175) vs. Sean O'Malley (-210): This will be O'Malley's first fight since June when he came up short in a title rematch against Merab Davlishi, while Song will be looking to enter the title picture with a win over a top five-ranked opponent. O'Malley's habit of slow starts could backfire against an aggressive striker such as Song who tends to come forward immediately. We believe O'Malley's most likely path to victory would be through a risk-adverse kickboxing display in which he uses his length to keep Song at bay and wins a narrow decision. Song, whose only defeat in his last four came in a right decision to current champion Petr Yan, has an opportunity to position himself for a rematch against Yan should he put on a dominant performance, and we believe the odds are just a bit too wide in this matchup.

Derrick Lewis (+250) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-320): The 40-year-old Lewis remains the UFC's all-time knockout leader with 16, and the 40-year-old, two-time title challenger's timeless popularity remains intact because of his devastating power and famously irreverent sense of humor. However, it was widely believed Lewis was headed toward the twilight of his career following a 2-4 stretch, but he has proven to be a serviceable top-10 gatekeeper in the depth-lacking division and has notched consecutive knockout victories over once-surging prospects Rodrigo Nascimento and Tallison Teixeira. The 34-year-old Cortes-Acosta has proven to be one of the more versatile heavyweights to come along in recent memory, and he has shown his varied skillset while compiling a 9-2 UFC record. However, should the No. 5-ranked heavyweight let his ego get the best of him and decide to trade haymakers with Lewis, he could easily become knockout victim No. 17 for the No. 8-ranked Lewis. 

Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 in 2025 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his boxing analysis and predictions.