UFC 325 fight card odds, picks: Combat analyst reveals underdog predictions for Saturday's card
SportsLine combat editor Josh Nagel releases his top underdog selections for UFC 325 in Australia
The UFC made its Paramount+ debut last week, with the first card of 2026 delivering a memorable main event from Las Vegas as veteran lightweight contender Justin Gaethje won the interim title with an action-packed win over celebrated prospect Paddy Pimblett to highlight the UFC 324 main card.
Now, in a rarity for the mixed martial arts promotion, the UFC is set to host another numbered event just as week later as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski makes a title defense in a rematch against rugged challenger Diego Lopes in the main event of UFC 325 on Saturday from Australia.
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The main card is set for 9 p.m. ET from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, and will be broadcast on Paramount+. Last April, Volkanovski took a lopsided decision over Lopes to claim the vacant featherweight title and hasn't fought since. Lopes positioned himself for a rematch with a knockout of rising contender Jean Silva last September.
The odds for Saturday's UFC 325 are similar to that of the first time they met, with Volkanovski priced as a -146 favorite (risk $146 to win $100) and Lopes offered at +124 in the latest UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 odds.
Last week, UFC 324 was highlighted a five-round war between Gaethje, who has earned a performance bonus in all 15 of his UFC appearances, and the swaggering Pimblett. The 37-year-old Gaethje rocked the 31-year-old Pimblett early and landed a ton of power shots on his way to a unanimous decision victory.
Gaethje, who closed with odds of around +200 at most betting outlets, was the only underdog to prevail on the UFC 324 main card. The event also featured three knockouts in the final three seconds of a round, and the main card kicked off with a decent scrap between featherweight contenders Silva and Arnold Allen, which Silva won by unanimous decision.
The UFC 325 fight card features several tightly-priced contests, suggesting MMA betting edges could be hard to find. Even so, we have a couple of underdog leans for the UFC 325 card.
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UFC 325 underdog picks
Here are our underdog leans for the main card of UFC 325:
Rafael Fiziev (+115) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-130): Fiziev was once of the lightweight division's most celebrated prospects before suffering a three-fight losing streak that included two close decision losses to Gaethje. The 32-year-old brawler bounced back with a decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes in June. The 29-year-old Ruffy saw his undefeated run in the UFC halted by a loss to Benoit Saint Denis in September. This is a crucial matchup because the winner has a chance to enter the top-five rankings, while the loser faces a long road back to contention. We believe Fiziev, who has faced the higher level of competition, will use his skills and ironclad will to send Ruffy to his second consecutive defeat.
Lopes (+125) vs. Volkanovksi (-150): In their first meeting, Lopes appeared to be caught off guard by the speed and athleticism of Volkanovski, who took command early before holding off a late rally by Lopes. Volkanovski, who is now 37, became the first fighter age 35 or older to win a title in the featherweight or lightweight divisions. Although this milestone shows he's a rare talent who is capable of escaping the age cliff, we expect the sinister brawler Lopes, who has promised to make the needed adjustments in Saturday's rematch, to deliver a strong performance and wrest the title from the celebrated veteran.
Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 in 2025 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his boxing analysis and predictions.
