UFC 326 betting preview, picks: MMA analyst releases top underdog plays for Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 card

A battle of esteemed former champions headlines the UFC 326 card on Saturday as Max Holloway meets Charles Oliveira in the main event of UFC 326 in Las Vegas. The main card is set for 9 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena and will be broadcast live on CBS and streamed on Paramount+.

There is no official UFC championship at stake, but the veteran combatants will be competing for the symbolic BMF title (those unfamiliar with the acronym can use an internet search, as we will refrain from printing it in a family-friendly media outlet).

Holloway defended this mythical distinction with a decision victory last July at UFC 318 over longtime foe Dustin Poirier, who retired following the bout. Although Holloway was once the dominant champion at featherweight, the 34-year-old Hawaiian is best known for his last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 in April 2024, a moment that remains perhaps the promotion's most prolific all-time viral highlight.

Oliveira (36-11-1), 36, was a late bloomer who evolved from a solid but inconsistent talent into a world champion. He holds the UFC record for most finishes with 21 and most submission victories with 17. However, the Brazilian has alternated losses and wins in his last six appearances.

Holloway (27-8) and Oliveira are both known for their dependability in high-leverage moments for the promotion. They met once 11 years ago, but the fight ended in anticlimactic fashion as Oliveira retired in the first round because of an injury.

Holloway is a -215 favorite (wager $215 to win $100), while Oliveira is priced at +175 in the latest MMA odds for UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2.

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We lean toward Holloway in the main event, but he has often been a difficult fighter to handicap. Seven of his eight career losses have come to current or former champions, and Oliveira fits that criteria. Oliveira's suspect chin is a major concern in this matchup, but this is also too thick of a price to lay behind a largely one-dimensional fighter in Holloway. His high-volume boxing and fearless disposition have been enough to carry Holloway to a sure-fire Hall of Fame career, but he has yet to face an opponent with the combination of wrestling and grappling chops that Oliveira possesses.

While we are going to pass on an official play for the main event, there are three main-card underdogs we believe have a decent chance of getting the cash, and we will list them in order here: 

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UFC 326 selections

Drew Dober (+105) vs. Michael Johnson (-125): The price already has dropped on the 37-year-old Dober from an opener of around +130 at most outlets, and we agree with this move. Dober is the all-time lightweight knockout leader with 10, and we can see him adding to that total against the 39-year-old Johnson. Although Dober recently snapped a three-fight losing streak, a stretch that led many observers to conclude he was washed up, he has historically fared well against fellow battle-tested veterans, and we like his power edge over Johnson to be the difference.

Reinier de Ridder (+220) vs. Caio Borralho (-280): De Ridder appeared to be on a fast track to a title shot before the former ONE promotion champion suffered a puzzling loss to middling contender Brendan Allen in his last fight. The 35-year-old Dutch fighter gassed out following nearly two rounds' worth of time spent unsuccessfully attempting to submit Allen, who then turned the tables with dominant top control. De Ridder could barely stand after the fourth round, and the fight was waved off. Even though this was an admittedly bad look, we still believe the odds are far too wide in this matchup. Borralho has been hailed as a future title contender ever since joining the UFC, but the 33-year-old Brazilian has yet to crack the top-five rankings despite a 7-1 mark in the promotion. His lone notable victory is a decision win over fading former title contender Jared Cannonier, and he is coming off a loss to No. 2-ranked Nassourdine Imavov. We believe the odds should be closer to pick'em and will back the underdog in this middleweight clash.  

Rob Font (+190) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-230): Rosas made history as the youngest fighter to ever sign with the promotion, inking a deal with the UFC just days before he turned 18. The coveted prospect is still just 21 and has had a bit of an unsteady trajectory. This includes a loss in his second UFC fight and a last-minute withdrawal in another for unknown reasons just minutes before the bout was scheduled to start. He has racked up four consecutive victories against lesser opponents, but this is a step up in competition. Font has spent most of his career in the top-10 rankings and is known summarily for both being a rugged competitor but also unable to break through against world-class competition. Even so, he has performed well at times in the gatekeeper role, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him turn back Rosas. 

Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.

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