UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira betting: Combat analyst reveals best bets, predictions for UFC card
SportsLine combat editor Josh Nagel releases his top selections for UFC Fight Night at the Meta Apex facility
The UFC is back with yet another card this weekend with UFC Fight Night taking place on Saturday night, with the main event being a matchup of ranked bantamweight contenders in Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. The main card is set to begin at 8 p.m. ET in Las Vegas, and the fights can be watched exclusively on Paramount+. Bautista enters the weekend No. 8 in the bantamweight rankings while Oliveira is No. 11. The winner will likely move up the rankings while the loser will face a tougher road towards title contention.
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Bautista owns a 16-3 career record, but he's coming off a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov, which was at UFC 321 in October. That loss snapped an eight-fight win streak.
As for Oliveira, he's 23-3 and can pick up his fifth straight win in UFC on Saturday. The Brazilian has received performance bonuses in two of his four bouts and is coming off a decision win over former prospect Kyler Phillips last July.
Bautista is a -148 favorite (wager $148 to win $100), while Oliveira is priced at +124 (wager $100 to win $124) for the five-round fight in the latest MMA odds for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira. The co-main event features a five-round scrap between flyweight contenders Kyoji Horiguchi (-345) and Amir Albazi (+275) in a three-round affair.
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Last week, Alexander Volkanvoski cemented his status as one of the most prolific featherweight champions in UFC history with another lopsided division victory over the rugged Diego Lopes in their rematch to headline UFC 325. With the victory, Volkanovski tied Jose Aldo for most featherweight title fight victories in the promotion's history with eight.
Although Saturday's UFC Fight Night card lacks the star power of its numbered-card counterpart, there are still some compelling matchups that should give mixed martial arts fans their fill of closed-cage violence.
UFC Fight Night picks
Here are our leans for the main card of UFC Fight Night:
Bautista (-148) vs. Oliveira (+124): Many MMA fans were slow to warm up to Bautista during his winning streak for his perceived risk-averse style. However, the 32-year-old fighter saw fan reaction make an about-face following his dominant win at UFC 316 over former Bellator star Patchy Mix, who had been heralded as a title contender before notching even one UFC victory. Bautista followed up that effort with a more than respectable outing against Nurmagomedov as a +600 underdog, pushing the former title challenger wire to wire. In what will be his first main event on Saturday, we expect Bautista's polished skillset to outshine the dangerous but unproven power striker in Oliveira. The price isn't appealing, but a prop on Bautista by decision will provide better odds.
Rizvan Kuniev (+130) vs. Jailton Almeida (-155): Almeida is a grappling specialist, and his trajectory already has proven that a heavyweight with very little stand-up skill is a risky proposition in the UFC and one that likely involves a limited ceiling as well. Kuniev is coming off a split-decision loss to former title challenger Curtis Blaydes and can't afford another loss if he wants to contend in the depth-lacking division. The fact that the unraked Kuniev is only a slight underdog to the No. 6-ranked Almeida is telling: It's telling us that in the heavyweight division, we're backing a primary striker with some ground skills against a grappling-only specialist almost every time.
Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 in 2025 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.
