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The UFC returns to action Saturday with a UFC Fight Night card in Mexico City, headlined by former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno taking on prospect Lone'er Kavanagh. The main card is set for 8 p.m. ET from Arena CDMX in Mexico City and will be broadcast on Paramount +.

Moreno is a -210 favorite (risk $210 to win $100), while Kavanagh is priced at +175 in the latest MMA odds for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh.

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Last week in this space, we correctly called Sean Strickland (+220) in the middleweight UFC Fight Night main event over rising contender Anthony Hernandez, and our method-of-victory prop of Strickland by KO/TKO (+700) also hit for anyone who tailed. Strickland's strong takedown defense, forcing Hernandez to rely on a marginal stand-up game, proved to be the difference as the former champion consistently landed his jab to set up a striking attack that resulted in a third-round finish.

However, finding value in the MMA odds isn't always an easy task, and one can be humbled quickly the minute he believes he has the volatile fight game solved. Case in point is this week's UFC Fight Night card, which features several bouts with steep prices on the favorites and numerous fighters whose inactivity make them difficult to analyze.

Cards such as this often feature a handful of regional fighters whose primary role on the UFC roster is to represent their home turf on the rare occasions when the UFC visits their respective stomping grounds. As such, the UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh bill consists of multiple combatants who have had at least a one-year hiatus from the octagon. This, in part, leads to wider prices against better-known opponents.

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UFC Fight Night selections

Finding betting value is difficult amid these circumstances. Parlaying the big favorites is a fool's errand, as it stands to reason at least one of the massive underdogs will emerge victorious. Unless you believe you are locked in on the performance arc for one of these fighters, it's generally best to stay away from betting either side of these matchups.

The main event brings its own level of intrigue. Moreno is a two-time champion but has dropped three of his last five fights, with all of the losses coming against elite competition. His victories came against Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi, prospects who were attempting to break through with a signature victory, only to be turned back by a more accomplished opponent.

Kavanagh appears to fit this category. Despite showing a promising skill set, this will be just his fourth UFC appearance. He is 2-1 and suffered a knockout loss to 35-year-old unranked journeyman Charles Johnson in his last appearance.

Even so, this doesn't mean we have a ton of confidence in Moreno, whose once-aggressive approach has given way to a more risk-averse style in recent outings. At this price point, we wouldn't recommend a straight bet on the former champion but would be willing to use him as a parlay leg along with another fighter or a selection from a different sport.

We also lean toward Ailin Perez (-180) against Macy Chiasson (+150) in a women's bantamweight fight on the preliminary card. A parlay of Perez and Moreno pays about +150 depending on your outlet's prices, and that's a play we will make with moderate confidence.

As for potential underdogs, we are likely to take a small play on Marlon Vera (+260) against David Martinez (-330) in the bantamweight co-main event.

Even though he is still just 33, Vera is a veteran of 25 UFC fights and a one-time title challenger. He has been through numerous memorable battles and won his share, including knockouts of Sean O'Malley and Dominick Cruz. But he heads into this matchup on a three-fight losing streak, coming out on the short end of a split decision against Aiemann Zahabi last October.

Vera's primary liability is that he tends to be a slow starter, which poses problems in a three-round fight as even a one-round deficit is difficult to overcome. But he was more assertive from the outset in his last fight, and we anticipate a sense of urgency Saturday.

Martinez has looked impressive but has just two UFC appearances to his credit. His last performance resulted in a narrow decision victory against fading veteran Rob Font last September. We believe Vera has better current form than Font and, as such, the wide odds present some value on the underdog.

Moreover, as last week's main event illustrated, we've seen a trend in which the accomplished veteran is shown a level of disrespect in the MMA odds against their lesser-accomplished opponents. This is another flashpoint for taking a shot on Vera at the big plus-money price. 

Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.

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