UFC Fight Night main event preview picks: MMA analyst gives top value positions for Hernandez vs. Strickland
SportsLine combat editor Josh Nagel releases his top leans for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Strickland
Last week in this space, we gave a brief overview of the UFC Fight Night main event Saturday between former middleweight champion Sean Strickland and rising contender Anthony Hernandez. We've since witnessed their media appearances, weigh-ins and also had a chance to analyze price movements in the MMA odds. The main card for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez is set for an 8 p.m. ET start and can be viewed on Paramount+.
The No. 4-ranked Hernandez, who is on an eight-fight winning streak, opened as around a -270 favorite at most betting outlets. He has held steady or seen a slight increase at most books, with DraftKings offering -275 for Hernandez and +225 on Strickland as of Friday morning after both combatants made the non-title fight middleweight limit (186 pounds) on the scale in Houston.
In our initial analysis, we leaned toward the underdog value on Strickland (29-7) based on what appears to be some recency bias toward Hernandez (15-2-1) and a nod toward his reputation for nonstop activity, which should provide a built-in advantage over the technical striking of Strickland.
We still believe there is some value on the bombastic former champion and will provide additional MMA betting angles and options below.
While Hernandez is an understandable favorite, keep in mind we've seen a recent trend of surging contenders taking a step forward toward title contention and coming up short in their first real test against world-class competition. The most recent example is British braggart Paddy Pimblett (-270) getting mauled by iconic brawler Justin Gaethje (+210) for the interim lightweight title in the main event of UFC 324 in January.
One common trait in which the surging contender is derailed by the proven veteran is the latter's advantage in strength of schedule for the latter, and this dynamic exists in UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez.
Although fan sentiment has somewhat soured on the 34-year-old Strickland because of his risk-averse approach in recent fights, he still authored one of the biggest title-fight upsets in UFC history when he defeated long-reigning former champion Israel Adesanya as a +600 underdog in September 2023. His resume includes victories over No. 2-ranked contender Nassourdine Imavov and former title challenger Paulo Costa. Strickland lost the belt in his first defense against brooding South African Dricus du Plessis, who arguably has already amassed a top-three resume in the history of the middleweight division.
Conversely, the 32-year-old Hernandez has exploded in popularity during his winning streak because of a sinister disposition in the octagon that is countered by a laissez faire attitude away from it. Even so, it's worth noting his strength of schedule hasn't exactly been a murderer's row. His string of opponents has mostly been journeyman-plus types and arguably the biggest win on his resume came against erratic fringe contender Brendan Allen in a lackluster decision last February. Coincidentally, Strickland knocked out Allen in the second round of their November 2020 fight.
The elevated competition has time and again proven to be a major factor as illustrated in Gaethje's victory over Pimblett, whose previous biggest win came over fading former Bellator champion Michale Chandler. Moreover, this is likely the last opportunity for the No. 3-ranked Strickland to remain in title contention as another loss would likely relegate him to a top-five gatekeeper role.
Paramount+ is the only place to Stream EVERY UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost. A subscription also gives you access to other sports content, including the UEFA Champions League, college basketball, the NFL and Big Ten on CBS and countless movies and shows. Plans start at just $8.99 per month, so sign up right here.
The matchup dynamics favor the Over 4.5 rounds as the strongest betting position as opposed to backing a money-line winner. Hernandez has developed a refined submission game and has four submissions among his last eight wins, but Strickland has excellent ground-game defense and has never been submitted. What's more, the former champion is known for his volume striking and, while he has 11 career knockouts, he has never finished a top-five opponent and hasn't had a stoppage in nearly three years. Even so, Hernandez has been stunned in some fights, including his win against Allen, so we believe Strickland has a better chance of hurting Hernandez than being submitted by him, a sentiment that will be reflected in our favorite longshot prop below for the main event.
As such, we like the fight to go the distance at a price of -150 on DraftKings, and we're also tempted to dabble in a point-spread wager. Point-spread betting is still somewhat of a novelty in the MMA betting odds, but many outlets, including DraftKings, now offer it. Similar to NFL point-spread betting, this option allows analysts to bridge the gap on an underdog and find value without needing the underdog to win outright. The MMA spreads relate to the potential difference on the scorecards should the fight go the distance. Your bet wins if the underdog covers the spread on the cards or wins outright.
As of Friday morning, Strickland was priced at -125 on DraftKings to cover +9.5 against Hernandez. For those uninitiated, the UFC, like boxing, uses as 10-point-must system in which the winner of a round gets 10 points and the loser is awarded 9. A point deduction or lopsided round could result in a 10-8 score for the victor of the round.
In other words, a 49-46 score -- four rounds to one -- in favor of Hernandez would represent a 9-point difference, giving Strickland point-spread backers a victory, The former champion essentially just has to make it to the final bell while winning one paltry round in order to cash this MMA wager. We find this to be the best value among outcome-based wagers and would recommend this play provided your betting outlet offers this option.
With that, here are our top betting positions, in order of confidence, for the main event of UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez:
Bet the UFC at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
UFC Fight Night main-event selections
Here are our top plays for Hernandez vs. Strickland (all odds via DraftKings)
Fight to go the distance: (-150)
Strickland +9.5 points: (-125)
Money-line value selection: Strickland (+225)
Best longshot prop: Strickland by TKO/KO: (+700)
Note: Last week, our UFC main-card selections went 2-0 as Mario Bautista (-140) defeated Vinicius Oliveira in the bantamweight main event and Rizvan Kuniev (+143) toppled Jailton Almeida (-185) in their heavyweight matchup.
Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.
