UFC Freedom 250 card: Do early odds for historic event provide any potential value spots?
SportsLine combat editor Josh Nagel previews the UFC card set for June at the White House
During last week's UFC Fight Night broadcast, UFC president Dana White announced live on Paramount+ the official lineup for the UFC 250 Freedom card in June. The anticipated event is noteworthy because, for the first and only time, the fights will take place on the White House premises, the culmination of an idea to mark America's 250th birthday with a historic fight card that has been in the planning stages for about a year.
Although the UFC Freedom 250 card lacks the mega star power some fans had hoped for, such as former champions Jon Jones and Conor McGregor, is still features arguably the biggest active American star in Justin Gaethje taking on Ilia Topuria, who is perhaps the UFC's most decorated current star, in the main event for the lightweight title.
The six-fight card features at least one America-born fighter in four of the matchups. But only one fight, the middleweight showdown between Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus, pairs two USA fighters against each other, guaranteeing at least one American winner.
Both Gaethje and fellow fan favorite Michael Chandler are massive underdogs to their respective opponents, raising some concern as to whether an event steeped in national pride will result in multiple America-born fighters getting embarrassed on their home turf. Nickal and former bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley are the only USA-born fighters who are favored in their matchups.
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Not long after the UFC Freedom 250 card was announced, sportsbooks posted MMA odds for every fight. The following is the fight card lineup with current odds:
UFC Freedom 250 card, odds
- Main event: Ilia Topuria (-600) vs. Justin Gaethje (+400) for undisputed lightweight title
- Co-main event: Alex Pereira (-125) vs. Ciryl Gane (-105), for interim heavyweight title
- Sean O'Malley (-380) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+260), ranked bantamweights
- Mauricio Ruffy (-600) vs. Michael Chandler (+400), lightweights
- Bo Nickal (-350) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+250), middleweights
- Diego Lopes (-200) vs. Steve Garcia (+150), featherweights
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UFC Freedom 250 look-ahead analysis, picks
Based on the sportsbook MMA odds, this lineup contains a slew of possibly lopsided matchups and, unfortunately, we can't envision either Gaethje, who is the current interim lightweight champion, or Chandler, a former title challenger, getting his hand raised.
Even so, we have a couple of initial early leans, and our underdog preview selections have been hitting as Sean Strickland (+220) defeated Anthony Hernandez (-300) last month and Charles Oliveira (+180) beat Max Holloway (-220) in last week's UFC Fight Night main event.
Ciryl Gane (-105) vs. Alex Pereira (-125): The French fighter has come up short in three previous bids for the heavyweight title, the last memorably coming to an end when a severe first-round eye poke from Gane to champion Tom Aspinall resulted in the fight being stopped and declared a no-contest. Gane also has been unimpressive in losses to former champions Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. Even so, he has enough athleticism and the varied skill set to get the best of the power-striking Pereira, who is attempting to become the UFC's first three-division champion.
Kyle Daukaus (+250) vs. Bo Nickal (-350): Daukaus is in his second stint with the UFC following his release on the heels of an unsuccessful first go-round, but the 33-year-old appears to be a potential late bloomer. He has notched first-round finishes of veterans Gerald Meerschaert and Michel Periera since rejoining the promotion. We remain unsold on the promise of Nickal, the famed former collegiate wrestler whose foray into mixed martial arts has yielded mixed results. In his only matchup against a ranked opponent, Nickal was knocked out by Reinier de Ridder in the second round last May. He bounced back with a win over fading journeyman Rodolfo Vieira, but we believe Nickal will have his hands full against the surging Daukaus and we'll take a shot on the underdog.
Aiemann Zahabi (+260) vs. Sean O'Malley (-380): O'Malley is coming off a lackluster performance in which the eccentric former champion appeared disinterested for most of his three-round fight against Song Yadong but still managed to get his hand raised. We also agree with the prevailing narrative that he was purposely provided a "soft" opponent in the No. 6-ranked and 38-year-old Zahabi over much more compelling matchups, including the UFC fan base's long-desired fight between O'Malley and No. 4-ranked Cory Sandhagen. Although we do have the uneasy feeling that O'Malley will likely get his hand raised if he's merely left standing for the final horn, the late-surging Zahabi collects most of wins behind superior volume. At the very least, he should force O'Malley into an uncomfortable pace and, if the former champ bides too much time while waiting to land a power shot, the unheralded underdog should have a chance to win on the scorecards.
Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.
