UFC look-ahead leans: Combat analyst finds early underdog value for upcoming cards
SportsLine combat editor Josh Nagel releases underdog value leans for future UFC events
The UFC is off this week, but its jam-packed 2026 slate picks up starting next weekend with a pair of UFC Fight Night cards, followed by another numbered event with UFC 326 coming on March 7.
Similar to many other sports, the best betting value in the combat space often lies in the opening price, a time during which such little attention is paid to the event that savvy bettors can extract the best value, provided they are willing to have their funds tied up for a little while.
Last week in this space, we shrugged off a rough start with our 2026 UFC selections to hit our top two picks on the UFC Fight Night card as Mario Bautista (-140) dominated in his first main-event appearance with a second-round submission against the overmatched Vinicius Oliveira. We also hit a strong underdog play on Rizvan Kuniev (+143), who took a unanimous decision over the stunningly gun-shy Jailton Almeida (-185) in their heavyweight matchup.
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Now, we'll look ahead to the upcoming UFC cards, and we're already leaning toward a couple of main-event underdogs. Here are the picks and analysis:
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UFC look-ahead analysis, picks
Here are our leans for upcoming UFC cards:
Sean Strickland (+230) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-290): The price on the former champion has already climbed from an opener of around +210 in most markets, and we're happy to take the bloated price on the former champion in the UFC Fight Night main event on Feb. 21.
Hernandez (15-2-1) has won eight consecutive fights following losses in two of his first three UFC appearances to climb to No. 4 in the middleweight rankings. The 32-year-old has become a fan favorite because of his sinister disposition inside the cage and seemingly low-key demeanor away from it. Even so, we believe he's been overvalued in the UFC fight odds in numerous matchups, and this one seems particularly puzzling.
Hernandez's style is similar to that of former bantamweight champion Merab Davlishili. From the opening bell, he provides a nightmarish, nonstop blur of takedowns, strikes, grappling and endless cardio, a formula that usually achieves its intended goal of breaking his opponent's will.
However, this style is unlikely to break the No. 3-ranked Strickland (29-7), whose only losses at middleweight have come against former champions or title challengers and who twice went five full rounds with rugged former title-holder Dricus du Plessis. Strickland has excellent takedown defense and the cardio to match Hernandez.
In recent fights, Strickland has been hampered by a lack of offensive output, but two of his last three outings have come against du Plessis and he appeared overly cautious in an effort to avoid the South African's devastating power. We believe Hernandez, who is a serviceable striker at best, doesn't have the power to hurt Strickland in the striking game and, if the former champion fends off takedowns and asserts his offense in the ensuing scrambles and clinches, he has what it takes to earn a victory over Hernandez and return to title contention. Moreover, this is a massive step up in competition for Hernandez, whose previous biggest victory is over the talented but erratic Brendan Allen, who is currently ranked No. 5.
Charles Oliveira (+150) vs. Max Holloway (-200): We'll have more analysis on this as the UFC 326 approaches, but our initial lean is toward the plus-money overlay on the former champion Oliveira, who has struggled while going 3-3 in his last six bouts. Even so, his natural size advantage and versatility provide some upside in this long-awaited rematch against Holloway, who has had nothing but grueling wars against the likes of Justin Gaethje, Ilia Topuria and Dustin Poirier over the past two years, winning two of the three. Holloway also defeated Oliveira by first-round TKO in a featherweight showdown 11 years ago.
Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.
