USA vs. Venezuela odds, picks, expert best bets for World Baseball Classic final on March 17
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca locks in his best bets for USA vs. Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic final on Tuesday
The World Baseball Classic concludes on Tuesday, March 17 with USA taking on Venezuela in the final. The Americans took down Dominican Republic in Sunday's semifinal in a 2-1 thriller, while Venezuela defeated Italy 4-2 in Monday's semifinal. It was Italy's only loss of the tournament. USA is looking for its second championship in its third consecutive appearance in the final, while this is Venezuela's first appearance in the final. Before wagering on Tuesday's final, you need to see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is locking in for his best bets.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for USA vs. Venezuela on Tuesday.
USA vs. Venezuela best bets
- Venezuela Money Line (+235): 0.5 units
- Maikel Garcia 2+ Hits/Runs/RBI (+120): 0.5 units
- Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+500): 0.25 units
Nolan McLean starts in the WBC championship for the United States against Eduardo Rodriguez from a Venezuela team that got a massive victory Monday night in the semifinals. Venezuela came back late in the game against the Italian bullpen and Michael Lorenzen to win 4-2, bringing the South Americans to their first WBC championship game. They've already qualified for the Olympics, which was the important part, but the Venezuelans certainly still want to win. And at the current price, I'm willing to take a shot that they can knock off the Americans.
With their lineup of MLB stars and a bullpen that features relievers just as effective as the USA's, including stud closer Daniel Palencia, the current price of +235 is showing value. The spread at +1.5 is reasonably priced, so that's a good look too but if that bet wins as Venezuela loses, the game would be close enough that I want the money line ticket in my pocket rather than the +1.5 runs at much worse odds.
Furthermore, while I like the future outlook for McLean, he was not very good in his only WBC appearance and the USA bullpen has been retooled and looks great, but how long can the Americans continue stranding runners on base? We'll see Tuesday night, and my bet is Venezuela keeps this close enough to where we have a shot on the money line.
The Venezuelans have knocked off Japan and Italy in recent days, looking up to the challenge in each, and with their Kryptonite (Dominican Republic) eliminated, that may be all these guys need to get over the hump!
Maikel Garcia dropped down a beautiful bunt Monday for a hit in the first inning, but it wasn't until the seventh inning that he got his second hit to cash our total bases bet. His RBI single broke a 2-2 tie and was a major difference-maker that sent Venezuela to the championship.
Garcia has been locked in, as I mentioned in my article on Monday, and there is no reason to not go back to his props here. His price on the hits/runs/RBI prop was -150 on Monday, and there was no value left at that price, but we get him in plus-money territory on Tuesday so we'll shift back to this prop instead of the total bases.
I don't dislike the total bases at 2+ if you want to go back to it, but hitting in the top of the order behind Ronald Acuna Jr. should provide at least a chance at an RBI at some point. Plus, we still can get something if he walks.
Another play of some value is Acuna to go deep in potentially the biggest game of his life. The former MVP is one of the best players in MLB, mainly for what he can do at the plate, so he'll be a tough customer for McLean and the USA pitching staff.
Acuna is just 2 for his last 10, with four strikeouts against Japan and Italy combined, but at this price of +500 or better, it's a must play, in my opinion. You're getting the best player on Venezuela, who is one of the best hitters in the world, in the leadoff spot and on the away team.
There will be ample opportunities for him at the plate, and regardless of who the USA rolls out from the bullpen after McLean, Acuna matches up well with anyone, and I want the home run on my ticket.
