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WNBA picks: A'ja Wilson, Aces meet Caitlin Clark, Fever in potential Finals preview on Thursday

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IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In my opinion, if you were to ask commissioner Cathy Englebert and other league officials anonymously what their preferred WNBA Finals matchup would be, Las Vegas vs. Indiana would be atop the list. That's because it would feature arguably the league's two biggest stars in the Aces' A'ja Wilson and Fever's Caitlin Clark. They square off tonight from Indy with a 7 p.m. ET tip on Prime Video in their final regular season meeting. But we might see these two in the WNBA Finals. 

A WNBA Finals matchup of Aces vs. Fever is priced +2200 at FanDuel with Aces-Lynx as the +310 leader. And that makes sense with Minnesota holding the league's best mark and Las Vegas second. If you're interested in basketball betting and parlay betting at the top sports betting apps, I've put together a same-game parlay for Thursday's matchup between the Aces and Fever.

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Aces vs. Fever same-game parlay

FanDuel SGP price: +148

Let's also do a quick update on MVP odds because the folks at BetMGM sent some updated numbers. Wilson has won four regular-season MVP awards and she's the -500 favorite for No. 5 with the 29-year-old former No. 1 overall pick (2018) leading the WNBA in scoring (26.6 PPG) and blocks (2.0 BPG), while ranking third in rebounding (9.6). The single-season league record for scoring is 26.9 points per game by Wilson in 2024.

BetMGM is exposed on Wilson as she is taking a whopping 58.4% of handle on the MVP prop since it was first posted months ago. Wilson opened at +250 with no one else even at 15%, and she's No. 2 in tickets at 14.5%.  

Las Vegas (21-9) is 3-1 since the All-Star break with Wilson averaging 30.0 points and 10.5 rebounds. She has in double figures in a league-leading 53 consecutive games and scored at least 20 20-point mark in 11 straight games, the second-longest streak in the league. Wilson is now 10 points from passing Candace Parker (6,574) for No. 11 on the WNBA's all-time scoring list.

Although, Wilson's streak of eight straight games leading the team in scoring ended in Monday's 109-87 win at Atlanta as Jackie Young led the way with 28 points and finished with her third career triple-double adding 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Since the All-Star break, Young is averaging 25.0 ppg on 60.7% shooting along with 6.5 assists. She's on pace to set career highs scoring (17.8 PPG), assists (6.8 APG) and rebounds (4.7 RPG).

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Indiana (19-11) had a five-game winning streak snapped in a 108-100 loss at the league-leading Lynx on Sunday, but the Fever extended their streak of 100-point games to six in a row and continue to lead the league in scoring by far at 96.5 PPG. That six-game streak is a WNBA record as is the team's 15 games of at least 100 points this season.

Mitchell led the way with 37 points on Sunday, her fifth 30-point game of the season and 14th straight 20-point game. That's second in league history for a single-season behind Wilson's 15 in a row in 2024. Mitchell is second in the league in scoring at 24.0 PPG. Clark added 19 points and 10 assists. She now has a triple-double and three double-doubles in her past six. To win MVP, Clark is +1400 and leads in tickets at BetMGM at 15.7% but not among top three in handle.

"The area that she's continuing to get better in for us now is the defensive rebounding," coach Stephanie White said. "She's always scoring and finding her open teammates and being able to facilitate. She has the potential to get that every game."

The Aces will be mega-motivated in the final meeting as they lost the first two at home by 16 and 34 points, respectively. Las Vegas averaged only 71.5 PPG on 39.5% field goal shooting — almost 14 points less than what the Aces average against any other opponent this season. Mitchell scored 27 points in each, while Wilson and Clark missed the first one.

This is my first WNBA parlay since hitting an Aces-related one last Thursday, and the models I checked have Indiana winning and nearly 200 points being scored. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter. 

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