World Baseball Classic odds: MLB expert reveals Dominican Republic vs. Korea picks for Friday
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca offers his top plays for Friday's Dominican Republic vs. Korea quarterfinal at the World Baseball Classic
The Dominican Republic will try to continue its dominance at the World Baseball Classic when it faces Korea in a Friday quarterfinal in Miami. The Dominican Republic cruised through pool play, winning its four games by a combined 41-10 and hitting 13 home runs. Korea went 2-2 and scored 29 runs in the four games but gave up 19. Former Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu is scheduled to start for Korea opposite lefty Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies.
First pitch is set for 6:30 p.m. ET at Miami's loanDepot Park. The Dominican Republic is a -900 money-line favorite at DraftKings, with Korea the +550 underdog and the over/under for total runs scored set at 10.5. Before you lock in any wagers on Dominican Republic vs. South Korea, you need to see what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for this contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Korea vs. Dominican Republic on Friday:
Dominican Republic vs. Korea best bets
- Dominican Republic -4.5 Runs (-115 DraftKings, 1 unit)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+350 FanDuel, 0.25 units)
The Dominican Republic dominated pool play, going 4-0 and beating Venezuela in a blockbuster on Wednesday night for the top spot in Pool D. The 7-5 score is closer than the game really was, thanks to some late bullpen woes from the DR, something I expect to not bleed into the quarterfinals.
The two runs allowed to Venezuela were the first that the Dominican bullpen had surrendered in this tournament, and the depth they have between a star-studded lineup and stellar bullpen should be enough to send Korea home without much of a sweat.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his second appearance of the WBC after allowing three hits and one run across three innings in his first start. The former MLB ace is a shadow of the pitcher he once was, and I don't have much confidence that a nearly 39-year-old soft-tossing lefty will shut down this offense.
The best thing this Korean team has going for it is the lack of familiarity the Dominican hitters have against their pitchers to come after Ryu, so the bullpen will be key if the veteran lefty can turn it over to the relievers while the game is still close.
Cristopher Sanchez is starting for the Dominican Republic after a rough first outing earlier in the WBC, but I anticipate he'll be much better in this matchup. The Korean lineup doesn't strike much fear into opposing pitchers, and Sanchez was incredible in MLB action this past year, so I'm not too worried about him finding his way.
I fully expect this lineup to do as it has done and continue to knock around opposing pitchers, potentially scoring in double digits in this game, but at least winning by at least a handful of runs.
Right now we can only get the spread -4 on DK, so if you want to spend the extra 15-20 cents and have Draftkings available, I like the angle to bet this spread where you only lose if the DR wins by 3 or fewer runs.
I have this one tabbed as a much larger gap than that, though, so I'm going to play the normal spread that's available everywhere at -4.5 for -115 right now.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been incredibly impressive in this WBC, going 6-for-12 with two home runs and seven runs batted in, and totaling an OPS over 1.500. Now facing an aging southpaw, I think Guerrero makes his mark on this game with another long ball.
When you look into the numbers from last year, the Blue Jays slugger was significantly better against left-handed pitching, hitting six home runs in 135 at bats with a .947 OPS, over 100 points better than he was against righties.
Ryu could get bounced from this game early, but Guerrero gets multiple at-bats against him, I'm betting he gets the best of the Korean starter. Also, the DR is the home team and I expect it to have the lead after eight innings so we likely will lose an at-bat for their hitters, so I won't go too deep here into the hitter props on this side, but at this price, it's well worth taking a shot on Vlad Jr. to hit a home run tonight.
