World Baseball Classic picks: MLB expert offers best bets for Saturday's Italy vs. Puerto Rico quarterfinal
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca analyzes Saturday's Italy vs. Puerto Rico quarterfinal at the World Baseball Classic and offers his best bets
Italy will try to continue its amazing run at the World Baseball Classic on Saturday when it faces Puerto Rico in a quarterfinal in Houston. The Italians went 4-0 in pool play, famously knocking off Team USA, then beating Mexico to keep the Americans from going home early. They outscored their opponents 32-11. Puerto Rico was 3-1, finishing second in its group after a 3-2 loss to Canada. It had a 15-7 edge on its pool opponents.
Saturday's first pitch at Houston's Daikin Park is set for 3 p.m. ET. Italy is a -125 money-line favorite at DraftKings, with Puerto Rico the +100 underdog. The Over/Under for total runs scored is 8.5, and Italy is favored by 1.5 on the run line. Before you make any wagers on Italy vs. Puerto Rico, make sure you check out what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca is betting for this contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for Italy vs. Puerto Rico on Saturday:
Italy vs. Puerto Rico best bets
- Under 8.5 Runs (-110 DraftKings, 1 unit)
- Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+475 DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Samuel Aldegheri was great in his first start for the Italian squad, so he'll get the ball again in the quarterfinals vs. Pool A runner-up Puerto Rico. This will be a significantly better matchup than what Aldegheri faced earlier in the tournament, when he pitched against a Brazilian team that lacked major-league talent and was coming from the qualifying stage.
The Italian bullpen that backs him up threw 13.2 scoreless innings of relief against the three teams other than the USA, but I'll give them a bit of a pass for struggling against that juggernaut lineup from the Americans.
Seth Lugo will be the opposing pitcher for Italy, and he was very good in his one WBC start as well, going four innings without allowing a run. A similar story for Lugo is that his start was against Colombia team, so we'll see how both of these pitchers do against a more formidable foe.
This game could really go either way, and we're seeing that reflected in the sides being close to an even split on the money line. The starting pitchers have both performed well previously, but I give the edge to MLB veteran Seth Lugo over the youngster from Italy.
The bullpen for Puerto Rico also features some high-level talent, and while Italy has MLB experience in its bullpen, I give the edge to Puerto Rico with Yankees prospect Elmer Rodriguez looking unhittable in his three WBC innings thus far.
The main issue I have with Puerto Rico is that its offense has been incredibly stagnant for much of this tournament. It beat Panama by scoring three runs between the ninth and 10th innings, but scored just one in the first eight.
The Puerto Ricans scored all five runs in one inning against Colombia but were otherwise held off the board, and they only scored four runs against Cuba, though it was enough to win.
The offense is certainly a problem, and it's the lack of home runs that's the most alarming part. Puerto Rico has hit just one home run through four games and scored 15 runs, while Team Italy has hit 12 home runs and scored 32 runs. The Italians have also racked up 40 hits so far, beating teams like Mexico and the United States, making it hard to ignore the offensive edge here.
Lugo and Rodriguez will be stiff tests for the Italian lineup, and with how awful the Puerto Rican offense has been, I'm taking the Under 8.5 full game total. Italy has scored too many of its runs on home runs for me to feel good that its offensive outburst will continue, and Puerto Rico's pitching has been the best in the tournament, with a 1.22 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.
Add in the struggling PR offense on the other side and I'm tabbing this to be a lower-scoring game that comes down to a big miscue or smart fielding play as the difference-maker. If you have the Under 9 available, I like that play where you will need a 7-3 or 6-4 type game to lose, but paying near -150 wasn't something I wanted to do.
I'm going to stay off player props for this game, but there is one I think we must play regardless of how good Puerto Rico's pitching has been, and that's the Vinnie P home run!
After hitting three last game and one against the USA, he's looking locked in, and Lugo is a teammate I'm sure he's had plenty of exhibition at-bats against.
