Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury are set to meet on Saturday in a rematch of their massive May clash. While that fight, arguably the biggest heavyweight fight of the era, was to crown the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the four-belt era, only three world titles will be on the line the second time around as a result of the IBF stripping Usyk of their title.
Usyk won the first clash by majority decision in a very solid fight that saw Fury build an early lead before Usyk took over the fight down the stretch. It was a fair result but the close scorecards gave Fury reason to hold onto the belief that he had earned the victory the first time around.
Usyk, who has earned the honor of undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight, currently sits as a -150 favorite as the oddsmakers and public have indicated they still see the fight as close to a 50/50 contest.
Let's take a look at the three best bets we've identified on the card, which is thin on big names outside of the main event.
Oleksandr Usyk via decision (+170)
Usyk had to weather some tricky moments early in the first fight but once he got the feel of Fury's approach, the Ukrainian champion took the fight over. The most incredible thing about that momentum switch is that Usyk didn't simply outbox Fury, he muscled the much bigger man around while hurting him repeatedly. We've heard the talk that Fury fully focused in on this fight, not even speaking to his family as he prepared for a better approach to the rematch. A fully dialed-in Fury has every chance to win this fight. He is, after all, one of the greatest fighters of his generation, with talent, power and size that can be a handful for any heavyweight in history. Fury is, however, also 36 years old with a lot of hard miles on his body in and out of the ring. I don't believe he can fully change his approach to boxing enough that it can befuddle a boxer with Usyk's skills and ability to make adjustments. While Usyk did hurt Fury in the first fight, the safe play here is for Usyk to pull off a repeat performance -- possibly with a bit more ease -- and take a decision again.
Either fighter to be knocked down: No (+140)
While I wouldn't be shocked if either man was knocked down, the additional knowledge provided by the first fight means slightly different approaches to the rematch. Fury knows Usyk can hurt him, which may add an additional layer of caution to how he comes forward. Meanwhile, Usyk learned how to avoid Fury's power and smothering on the inside, and will likely want to avoid that same early effective work from Fury. Despite either fighter to be knocked down sitting as -190, it feels like no knockdown is the safer play.
Serhii Bohachuk vs. Ishmael Davis under 8.5 rounds (-130)
Bohachuk was supposed to be facing Israil Madrimov in a big fight when Madrimov pulled citing medical reasons. Fair or not, many assumed Madrimov actually pulled out because it was already announced he would be fighting Vergil Ortiz in February as long as he didn't lose to Bohachuk. Whether Madrimov saw the better payday and bigger fight and didn't want to risk losing to Bohachuk won't ever truly be known, but it does mean Davis enters the fight as a late replacement. Davis was also a late replacement in his previous fight, stepping in and losing by majority decision to Josh Kelly. Bohachuk is a stiffer test than Kelly, as shown by Davis sitting as a +600 underdog. Bohachuk gave Ortiz everything he could handle in their August clash, knocking him down twice en route to losing a majority decision. Bohachuk has scored stoppages in all but one of his 24 victories and against a late replacement, it wouldn't be shocking to see him repeat that feat. The best line to take advantage of that is taking the under on 8.5 rounds as Bohachuk is -360 to win by knockout. Davis doesn't have big power but you also get a small cushion with the under on if he is able to somehow crack Bohachuk.